###### Roy Spencer

*[This is a reprint (21 Sep 2017) from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog (drroyspencer.com) in which he makes the point that two category 4 hurricanes making landfall in the same year is far more likely than the recent eleven year period with no major hurricane landfalls that preceeded the two category 4 hurricanes. Assuming the 177 year return period for no major hurricanes in 9 years estimated by NASA was correct, we agree with Dr. Spencer that the return period for no major hurricanes in 11 years would be 560 years. Dr. Spencer made the mistake of comparing 2 cat. 4 or larger hurricanes in a single year with no cat. 3 or larger hurricanes in 11 years. Consequently, had he estimated the return period for 2 cat. 3 or larger hurricanes in a given year rather than 2 cat. 4 or larger, he would have come up with an even shorter return period than 50 years making the comparison even more stark than it was. Ed.]*

Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall.

Continue reading “Eleven-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes”