Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum – In science, the debate is never over!
Tag: global climate model
(def. Wikipedia) A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources (radiation, latent heat).
Unfortunately, climate models have never produced a correct projection of global temperatures. This is due to a number of problems with the models. Global cloud cover has a big effect on global temperatures, but cloud cover is poorly understood and not modeled correctly. Modelers assume a strong feedback from the presence of carbon dioxide, but many experts say that the feedback is weak or even negative. Without feedback, carbon dioxide has a very small effect on global warming. These climate models use non-linear, partial differential equations which by their very nature cannot be solved.
Climate change policy decisions by our government are based on the output from these models that have always been wrong. These policies have extremely expensive ramifications. Most people would consider basing expensive policy on bad model output to be complete lunacy, if they were aware of it.
Trump’s Paris decision challenges bad science, economics and energy politics behind treaty
In the wake of President Trump’s exit from the Paris climate treaty, reactions from other quarters were predictably swift, nasty, sanctimonious and hypocritical.
Al Gore paused near one of the private jets he takes to hector lesser mortals to say the action will bring “a global weather apocalypse.” Billionaire Tom Steyer got rich selling coal but called the President’s action “a traitorous act of war.” Actor-activist Mark Ruffalo railed that Trump has “the death of whole nations on his hands.” Michael Moore said the action was “a crime Continue reading “More rational policies in our future?”
Skeptical modelers show a more realistic view of past, present, and future climate change that follows mostly natural temperature patterns. These models indicate a more benign climate outcome than do the IPCC models. Since they are able to bound the problem of cause and effect, they dramatically reduce the wide uncertainty range of expected global temperature increase due to atmospheric CO2 concentration.
When Alarmists say “climate change is real!” I think yes it is, but “real . . . what?” My perhaps flippant answer to that question is real normal, real natural . . . among a few. I think human caused climate change is real small. These are some of the real issues that I want to explore here.
The first point is that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) climate models are actually not real at all. In fact based on the real data, they are turning out to be fairy tales. Based on the real data, more realistic models are now being developed by very qualified groups and individuals. The improvement in modeling results over those by the IPCC appear Continue reading “A Brief Look at Climate Models Developed by Skeptics”
Trump was 100% right (not just 97%) to show real leadership and walk away from Paris
I can guess why a raven is like a writing-desk, Alice said. “Do you mean you think you can find out the answer?” said the March Hare. “Exactly so,” said Alice. “Then you should say what you mean,” the March Hare went on. “I do,” Alice replied. “At least I mean what I say. That’s the same thing, you know.”
“Not the same thing a bit!” said the Hatter. “You might just as well say, ‘I see what I eat’ is the same thing as ‘I eat what I see’!” “You might just as well say,” added the Dormouse, ‘I breathe when I sleep’ is the same thing as ‘I sleep when I breathe’!” “It IS the same thing with you,” said the Hatter.
Can you imagine stumbling upon the Mad Hatter’s tea party, watching as the discussions become increasingly absurd – and yet wanting a permanent seat at the table? Could Lewis Carroll have been having nightmares about the Paris climate treaty when he wrote Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland? Continue reading “Exiting the Mad Hatter’s climate tea party”
A short piece in Science (AAAS) by Kelly Servick (Mar 6, 2017) ignores carbon dioxide in explaining how increased sunlight has caused U.S. corn yields to grow over the past 3 decades. Servick says the increased sunlight was due to decreased atmospheric aerosol content and that projections by global climate models indicate that this will not continue into the future due to rising temperatures and drought. Interestingly, the positive effects of carbon dioxide on plant drought tolerance and fertilizing effect were not mentioned.
[This was originally posted in 2013 on Judith Curry’s site and was authored by CASF member, Steve McGee. We have included it here as part of the CASF Archive. Posted on December 26, 2013 |169 Comments]
by Steve McGee
In science, one likes to have more examples than theories. – Dusan Djuric
Those words, spoken whimsically about cosmology, apply to climate science as well. The theory of the sensitivity of climate to the radiative forcing imposed by a doubling of carbon dioxide suffers from a lack of observed, repeatable examples. Paleo-climate studies carry with them the uncertainty of the proxy data and unmeasured assumptions on which they are based. Studies regarding the forcing from volcanoes and other transient events may not be repeatable for some time. However, Lindzen et. al. 1995 (link ) and Ramanathan and Inamdar in Frontiers of Climate Modeling, 2006 (link ) each have pointed out that the seasonal variation of earth temperature is quite large and possibly a surrogate for climate change. With this in mind, I set out to determine how the seasonal variation Continue reading “Seasonal Radiative Response”
Is Earth in Energy Deficit? [This was origninally posted on Judith Curry's web site and was authored by CASF member, Steve McGee,in 2013. We have added it to this...