2024’s Hurricanes Helene & Milton

 and claims their power was juiced by “Human-Caused Climate Change”  

Robert W. Endlich

Author’s note: This post is based upon the presentation graphics, on-line here, for the 19 October 2024 meeting.

PRELUDE: THE 2024 HURRICANE SEASON BEFORE HELENE

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season got off to a late start; Tropical Storm Alberto did not form until 19 June, the latest named storm since 2014. Then, Hurricane Beryl was a long-lasting (around 14 days) system; she began in the Cape Verde Islands region, tracked past Jamaica, crossed Yucatan, entered Texas near Matagorda and weakened, with her remnants getting to the eastern Great Lakes region, before dissipating, 11 Jul 2024.

From Wikipedia,

“Activity then quieted down across the basin for most of July after Beryl dissipated, with no new tropical cyclones forming due to the presence of the Saharan air layer (SAL) across much of the Atlantic.”

Tropical activity seemingly resumed, then paused for

“an unusual lull in activity in late August and early September.”

Here’s how Wikipedia describes subsequent developments:

“On September 24, Hurricane Helene formed over the western Caribbean before moving toward the Big Bend region of Florida. It made landfall there on September 26, at Category 4 strength, before moving inland and dissipating over central Appalachia…. On October 5, Hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico and explosively intensified into the second Category 5 hurricane of the season, becoming the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005, by barometric pressure…”

This post examines the notions that human-caused, CO2-fueled global warming was responsible for the strong power of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton which accounted for extensive damage and a large loss of human life, with Helene responsible for 228 dead, and for Milton, 35 dead.

WEATHER ATTRIBUTION: NEAR-REAL-TIME BLAME INDUSTRY

Roger Pielke, Jr., writing on Substack, describes a new variation of global warming alarmism, what he calls, “Weather Attribution Alchemy.” This group of Alarmists engage in “event attribution,” in which, for weather events in progress, the “Weather Attribution Industry” issues press releases attributing a certain amount of the event in progress to human causes. The underlying reasons for “increasing the immediacy” of such releases originally was done “with the courts in mind.” Another activist is quoted as saying, the reason for these stories is to convey this message: “Dangerous Climate Change is here now!” <bold in the original>

Figure 1.  This graphic, from the Presentation Graphics, shows the names and logos of the Weather Attribution Organizations, an included subgroup of the climate alarmists, involved in the Weather Attribution Industry. Roger Pielke, Jr. defines for us this new product of such activists, Tactical Science, the act of producing press releases attributing strength of weather events in progress to human causes. The bottom horizontal list names alarmist press organizations, which actively use the press releases of the Weather Attribution Industry, those in the top four lines

A PEEK AT SOME HISTORIC DATA

Actually, if you look at the data, there were a lot more record extreme maximum temperature records set in the USA during the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. The International Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, says that the strong increases of CO2 emissions which began in the 1950s, the post-WW2 economic boom, started the present warming of the climate.

And, if you look at Figure 2 below, most extreme maximum temperatures were set in the years before the mid-20th century beginning of the surge in CO2 emissions, directly contradicting the IPCC’s claims.

Figure 2 shows a map of the 50 States of the USA and the extreme maximum temperature, in red, and the year that extreme maximum temperature was set, in black. This graphic, based on NOAA’s own temperature extremes data base, directly confounds and contradicts the Climate Attribution Industry’s notion that increasing <CO2>is leading to increasingly warmer temperatures.

Note well, the peak in the number of the 50 states when the extreme maximum temperature was in the 1930s, when <CO2> was ~307 PPM. Today <CO2> is about 419 PPM. Notice that fewer states reached their extreme maximum temperatures in the 2000s.

A map of the united statesDescription automatically generated
Figure 2. Map of the USA’s states annotated with temperature data in red based on NOAA’s own temperature extremes data base, directly confounds and contradicts the notion that increasing is leading to increasingly warmer temperatures. The numbers in black are the years in which that record maximum extreme temperature for that state was set. Note especially, the peak in the number of the 50 states when the extreme maximum temperature is in the 1930s, when was ~307 PPM. Today is about 419 PPM. A lot fewer states reached their extreme maximum temperatures in the 2000s

One splendid example of the Weather Attribution Industry’s output is this claim, from Yale Climate Connections, that the unusually warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico in September 2024 was caused by humans.

TWO REASONS TO DOUBT HUMAN-CAUSATION

If you look at the physics of the penetration of solar radiation into water, including sea water, it is the visible radiation from the sun that warms water. It is clearly NOT increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 which emits in the infrared, which radiation stops at the water surface and does not enter the water.

Figure 3 below, taken from the presentation graphics, shows clearly that the claim by Yale Climate Connections and their partner in crime against the truth, Climate Central, are patently not true. The truth of this matter, plainly found in the physical science world, is the visible light from the sun heats the ocean water, not invisible heat radiation in the infrared, as is emitted by CO2.

Figure 3. This figure, taken from the presentation graphics, shows the Alarmist claims are wrong. The diagram has on the ordinate the absorption per meter, while the abscissa shows the wavelengths, ultraviolet on the left, visible indicated with the red arrow, and near infrared, middle infrared and far infrared to the right. It is clear that ONLY the visible wavelengths of light from the sun penetrate the water, heating the water. Britannica explains this as follows: “Water is transparent to the wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation that fall within the visible spectrum and is opaque to wavelengths above and below this band.”

There is another important fact from the physical science world that Yale Climate Connections misses directly in play here, global cloud cover changes.

In 2019, Pokrovsky, using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, the ISCCP, showed that cloud cover decreased from 68% in 1986 to 64% by 2000 the lesser number of which continues to at least 2010.

The presentation graphics contain the data from Pokrovsky which show that as the years progressed from 1986 to 2000, cloud cover decreased, shown in Figure 4 below.

Figure 4. Chart of the amount of cloud cover time series as analyzed by Pokrovsky using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Ordinate shows cloud cover, and the abscissa shows the dates. Brackets show the error bars. Clearly cloud cover decreased over this period of record.

And, not surprisingly, as the cloud cover decreases, earth surface temperatures increase.

STORMS: THEY HELP MOVE HEAT ENERGY TOWARD THE POLES

From our studies of atmospheric motions, it is clear that the atmosphere helps export heat from the tropics poleward. In the Atlantic Basin, both the Gulf Stream in the ocean, and the atmosphere above the Atlantic help export heat from the tropics.

Think about it. With all the sun’s energy deposited in the Tropics, they are NOT heating up much at all, so it is plain that the heat must be efficiently moved poleward. How is that done? The Gulf Stream does its part, but Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin also help.

Figure 5 shows this, it comes from the graphics from my Course, “Weather, Climate, and Climate Change—What the Data tell Us,“ from 1 Oct 2019.

Figure 5. Graphic showing the surplus of energy deposited in the tropics and the deficit of energy deposited in the more poleward latitudes. Ordinate, energy deposited, watts/m2, abscissa, Latitude, in degrees south and north. Thinking critically, the tropics are not heating much, if at all, so physical processes must export that heat, poleward, processes observable on a daily basis. Those processes include ocean currents; the Gulf Stream is most important in the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic. In the atmosphere, it is middle latitude storms in the cool and cold seasons, and hurricanes in Hurricane Season, June 1 to November 30 each year, that help transport that heat. And that “Hot Water” in the Gulf of Mexico comes from the sun shining on the tropical waters, more so lately because global cloud cover decreased, 1986-2010.

So, yes, there were dramatically warm surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico during the times Helene and then Milton formed late summer, 2024. We’ve seen that the 2024 hurricane season got off to a late start. This was exacerbated by dust in the atmosphere from the Sahara Air Layer. These factors, sunlight heats sea water, and reduced cloud cover, especially from the Sahara Air Layer in Summer 2024, clearly and distinctly explain the very warm Gulf of Mexico surface water temperatures late summer 2024.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed to help export that excess heat poleward, human emissions of CO2 had nothing to do with this. Sorry, Climate Central and Yale Climate Connections, storms like these have happened many times before, and will happen again.

How do I make these statements? What proof do I have?

VERY STRONG HURRICANES FROM THE PAST

Let’s look at the Great Hurricane of 1780, which devastated Barbados, Martinique, St Lucia and other Caribbean Islands. It was described as “the deadliest hurricane of all time” in the Atlantic Basin. Wikipedia says, “between 22,000 and 27,501 people died.”

Now let’s look at my claim, “storms like these have happened many times before…”

There are data from overwash from Very Strong Hurricanes in the historic past on the Gulf Coast which show these very strong storms occurred in the past, with a lot less atmospheric CO2.

The next two graphics came from Liu and Fearn, who studied and published, “Holocene History of Catastrophic Hurricane Landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico Coast Reconstructed from Coastal Lake and Marsh Sediments.”

Figure 6. This figure came from the presentation graphics. Left, this map shows coastal lakes and marshes along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico along with tracks of significant hurricanes, Categories 3, 4 and 5, which struck this area during the 20th century. Right, the diagram which shows a cross section of the topography of the lake sediment cores used in this study. On the extreme left, the Gulf of Mexico with beach and dune shoreline, and overwash occurring during such hurricanes. On the right, the lake showing sediments deposited by this overwash mechanism and a platform where lake deposit core samples are extracted.

Below is Figure 7, from Liu and Fearn, showing the results of their study of the sediments. The ordinate is time for each of the coastal lakes determined from radiocarbon dating using Carbon 14. From Left to right, from west to east, as if facing northward, Pearl River Marsh, LA; Pascagoula Marsh, MS; Shelby Lake, AL; and Western Lake FL. The data show a distinct maximum of Very Strong Hurricane-generated overwash-produced coarse sediment layers from 1000 years before present (BP) to 3500 years BP, well before human-caused increases in CO2 could have caused increases in hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

A chart of a number of different types of water Description automatically generated with medium confidence
Figure 7. This chart, also from Liu and Fearn, shows in red the coarse sand layers which were found in the sediments of Gulf of Mexico coastal lakes from Louisiana to Florida. The red bands represent coarse sand layers formed when Very Strong Hurricanes, Categories 3, 4, and 5 struck the shores, and overwash of coarse sand was deposited in each of the coastal lakes. The maximum in coarse sand layers in the period 1000 BP to 3500 BP, shows that Very Strong Hurricanes occurred well before modern increases of CO2

CONCLUDING REMARKS

I have shown that alarmist claims that the strength of the two hurricanes that affected the southeastern US in September and October 2024, Hurricanes Helene and Milton, occurred as a result of natural factors. These hurricanes were not influenced by human-caused increases in CO2.

In recent years, a new industry, the “Weather Attribution Industry” has come into being. That industry, explained by Roger Pielke, Jr., writing in Substack, has a goal of increasing the immediacy of the notion that human production of CO2 is causing stronger storms, higher rainfall amounts, and other adverse effects from storms in progress. The use of this methodology, called Tactical Science, while the event is in the news, has at least two purposes, to attribute blame, “with the courts in mind,” and to bring to the forefront this notion, “Dangerous Climate Change is here Now!”

At least two alarmist organizations, Climate Central and Yale Climate Connections, blamed the strength of 2024’s Hurricanes Helene and Milton, on warm water in the Gulf of Mexico resulting from Human-Caused CO2-Fueled Climate Change, which “amplifies extreme weather.”

It is true that the extremely warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico caused these hurricanes to gain strength rapidly. But the warm waters resulted from a late start to the 2024 hurricane season, which allowed more sunshine on the Gulf waters. I showed that it is sunlight that heats water, not more radiation from the earth’s atmospheric CO2. Cloud cover decreased significantly from 1986-2010 as shown by Pokrovsky, using data from the ISCCP. A Sahara Air Layer inhibited cloud formation allowing even more sunlight to heat the Atlantic and Gulf waters than with average weather conditions.

Data from the sediment from lakes bordering the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana to Florida was examined using radiocarbon dating techniques. Sediment cores from these lakes revealed coarse sand layers attributed to overwash from very strong hurricanes, which revealed a maximum in the concentration of these coarse sand layers from 1000 to 3500 Years BP. Naturally-occurring Very Strong Hurricanes have been a feature of hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico for thousands of years.

These hurricanes have left their fingerprints, so to speak, in the sediment deposited on lakes bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Very Strong Hurricanes are a fact of life in this part of the USA. Such hurricanes occurred in 2024; no help from human-caused CO2 emissions is necessary to explain the strengths of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

 

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Author: Robert Endlich

Robert W. Endlich served as Weather Officer in the USAF for 21 Years. From 1984-1993, he provided toxic corridor and laser propagation support to the High Energy Laser Systems Test Facility at White Sands Missile Range. He has published in the technical literature and worked as software test engineer. He was elected to Chi Epsilon Pi, the national Meteorology Honor Society, while a Basic Meteorology student at Texas A&M University. He has a BA degree in Geology from Rutgers University and an MS in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University.