This special page is for the purpose of making available to interested parties the presentation slides and other presentation materials used at our monthly CASF meetings. These materials will be available to members and others who were unable to attend a particular meeting and also for future reference during discussions or when preparing blogs or other presentations.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for the February meeting (20 Feb 2021). His presentation was titled, “Predictions – Pitfalls and Failures.” Anyone can make a prediction and most people do, but for a prediction to be credible, it must be backed up with a lot of study, research, and hard work, and that is something that most people making predictions don’t do. Obviously, those who put the work into it end up with better results, but even they are frequently wrong. Bernie talks about the different kinds of predictions which include weather forecasts, climate change forecasts, the results of political elections, and others. His briefing slides contain several links to reference material. He provides for more details additional reference material in “Videos and Reports” and a scientific paper by J. Scott Armstrong on “Evaluating Forecasting Methods“. Regarding our most recent Presidential election, he included a link in his slides to a very interesting video that summarizes the election fraud that occurred. Finally, he included an interesting article titled , “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election” by Time magazine on how a group of individuals, which included corporate CEOs and other like minded people, ensured that this last election was well run and free of any significant election fraud regardless of what President Trump said about it. It is an excellent example of how true believers must exist in an alternate universe, but it also goes to show that you can correctly forecast the outcome if you know it is fixed. In the youtube video by Heartland USA, they take this Time article to task and suggest that Time is admitting that the election was rigged when they say this group of people ensured that the election had the “right” outcome.
There was no presentation in January, because January’s meeting was cancelled.
Hard working Bob Endlich was once again the presenter at the December (19 December 2020) meeting. His presentation was about the recent election and the massive fraud that occurred. Yes, contrary to MSM proclamations, there are lots and lots of evidence of that fraud witnessed by hundreds, if not thousands, of patriotic Americans who signed sworn affidavits regarding what they witnessed. So how is this related to climate change? Joe Biden has stated that, if elected, he will return to the faulty Paris accords that President Trump had taken us out of.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our November (21 November 2020) meeting. His presentation was entitled Bob’s Analysis of Dave Duboi’s Climate Education Presentation. Duboi’s presentation on 17 April 2018 was part of the NMSU Climate Education series of presentation and carried the title, “Why are we concerned about a changing climate.” Here are the movies of the El Nino and the La Nina.
Our October (17 October 2020) meeting presentation was provided by Bernie McCune. His presentation concerned “Physics vs Modeled CO2.” A major conclusion of his talk is that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would be of little significance in the overall scheme of things. Bernie based his presentation on the attached document written by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer.
Also, a Climate Nexus video narrated by Dr. John Dobson discusses the faulty assumptions being used in models. This video also can be found via the menu item: Special Page > Climate Videos Recommended by Bob.
The document in the below link is by Will Happer with some more detail on CO2 and climate change issues:
As a side bar, Bernie spoke about the Wuhan and Climate in which he showed the expected trends of the Wuhan virus and compared them with the actual trends of the virus as a function of the climatological areas of the world. He also spoke about the case and death graphics for a few of the countries in the Wuhan and Climate presentation, which show the recent case rise while the lack of death increase indicates that there is a “casedemic” or “testdemic” occuring while the Wuhan season winds down.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our first meeting following the second shutdown of NM restaurants by our esteemed Governor Grisham. Restaurants were closed immediately prior to our scheduled July meeting. Since having our meetings has been tied to the Wuhan virus pandemic, it seems quite appropriate for the topic for this meeting to pertain to the pandemic. Bernie has been doing a lot of research on this disease and medical and government reactions to it, and he is more knowledgeable on this than most. Most people will find a lot of items of interest and learn new things by reading Bernies’s briefing entitled “Introduction to Virus Epidemiology Models and Data and the Wuhan Pandemic”. Bernie also provided this item on a researcher from China, who coauthored a scientific paper providing evidence that the Wuhan virus was developed in a laboratory. She provided a link to her paper on Twitter and Twitter suspended her account as a result. I guess nobody ever accused Twitter of being non-political or objective.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our first meeting (June 20, 2020) since the Pandemic hit. This presentation is a bit different in that it does not discuss global warming. Instead it is a very interesting pictorial presentation on his visit as a guest of John Shipe and his wife to the Holy Land. Bob’s slide presentation is broken into four parts:
Our February meeting presentation (15 Feb 2020) was provided by Roger Dombrowski on oil and gas from shale. Roger Dombrowski’s is a civil engineer whose career was spent in managing and operating oil field drilling equipment and activities. He began his presentation with a description of the geology of oil containing source rock, reservoir rock, and traps. While he talked about conventional oil drilling, most of his presentation involved hydraulic fracturing or fracking which produces both natural gas and crude oil. His briefing slides in the above link contain additional details of the fracking process.
Steve McGee provided the January 2020 meeting presentation on the subject of his recently published book entitled “Chill: 49 Reasons to Worry Less about Climate Change.” If you are worried about the effects of climate change, then this book is for you. Steve’s new book is available for sale on Amazon.com.
Bernie McCune provided our December 2019 meeting (21 Dec 19) presentation on the many problems associated with going to a high percentage or total renewable energy program. He began his talk by discussing the dubiousness of the hypothesis that CO2 controls the climate. He then went on to talk about many of the problems associated with the so-called renewable energy program. Much of what he talked about was based on an excellent, comprehensive report researched and written by Mark Mills. Bernie emphasized that water vapor is the strongest absorber of infrared energy and talked about measuring insolation using a Normal Incidence Pyrheliometer (NIP) at the White Sands Missile Range solar furnace. In addition, Bernie presented a short video by a very intelligent young woman who has a love and respect for science and is obviously well informed on the topic of climate. We highly recommend this video for anyone interested in climate change.
Our 16 November 2019 meeting presentation by Bob Endlich was entitled “Climate Crisis 2019, Hurricanes Dorian and Michael, Winter Outlook, Proof CO2 isn’t important, 536 AD”. As indicated by the title, this briefing covered a lot of ground but mainly centered on the misinformation, blown seasonal climate predictions, and impossible to believe topics which demonstrate the error of the alarmist hypothesis that “CO2 controls the climate,” and that today’s temperatures are far from being “unprecedented,” if you look at the data.
Bob Endlich provided a presentation entitled “Deconstructing an Alarmist Article Examining Sources Standards and Data” at the October 2019 meeting in response to a climate alarmist article written by Leah Romero and published by the Las Cruces Sun-New on 19 September 2019. Bob had noted that almost every so-called fact based on data in the Romero article was faulty, and explains these faults in this presentation.
For the September 2019 meeting, Bob Endlich presented a very in-the-news topic, the alleged crisis in the Amazon, “Fires in the Rain Forest,” brought to the fore by a tweeted image from France’s President Macron shortly before the G7 summit in August. What Bob showed was this was another instance of Fake News brought to us in living color by the main-stream media. When you actually look at the images instead of the colors in the photo copy it is plain that the fires are not in Amazon Rainforest, but in land which previously had been forest, cut down this year or years before, and set ablaze by farmers attempting to enhance crop productivity by adding the ash to the soil. Bob ranks a video by TIME at the top of the Fake News List with the largest number of whoppers in the shortest TIME.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our August meeting (17 August 2019) entitled “The 2019 Heat Wave in Europe and Beyond – What The Media Didn’t Tell You.” CNN showed photos of a dog sled team pulling their sled through ankle-deep water in Greenland. This was seemingly a spectacular example of “climate catastrophe,” their words, but a shallow layer of water on top of the ice is not all that unusual for June after over a month of 24 hours per day sun. Such occurrences in Greenland were recorded in the 1800s, and Bob showed a photo of it also happening in 1984. New all-time high temperatures attributed to climate change were supposedly set in Germany, England, and France, but Bob shows that these records are invalid because the meteorological instrumentation was placed in locations that did not meet World Meteorological Organization siting requirements, and as a result, temperatures were artificially high because of poor exposure. The warm temperatures were the result of a weather event and not human-caused climate change as claimed. The June weather event was an omega stationary blocking pattern that caused a persistent warm southerly flow from the African Sahara up over Europe resulting in higher than normal temperatures in the region. Omega patterns at jet stream altitudes are not rare events. The July event was one hot day in a warm summer, but not nearly as hot as the Summer of 1976. Claims from alarmists and the media were also made regarding Arctic sea ice extent reaching record lows, but a check of the actual measurement data show this to be untrue as well; 2012 was hotter with much less Arctic Sea Ice extent.
The topic for our July 2019 meeting presentation was titled, “The Oceans as the Main Climate Influence” and was provided to the forum by Bernie McCune. Since about 71 percent of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas, ocean currents and cycles have a significant and profound effect on the climate. The salinity of sea water causes it to freeze at a lower temperature (28 F) than fresh water (32 F). As a side note, Bernie said that sea ice does not contain any salt, because only the water portion of sea water freezes and the sodium chloride separates out in the process. Consequently, the sea water immediately beneath the ice contains an even higher concentration of salt than the sea water from which the ice formed. This means that the sea water beneath the ice is more dense than that at deeper levels and it sinks, and this process becomes a contributor to deep ocean currents. Bernie has also provided a supplemental narrative that explains in more detail the great global conveyor that moves the ocean waters around the globe represented by the various currents and ocean cycles that affect the climate.
Mike Wallace came down from Albuquerque to visit the forum and provided the 15 June 2019 presentation about “Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components
towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western US.” The slides from his presentation may be viewed here.
Our May 2019 (18 May 2019) meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich on another topic casting doubt on the alarmist climate change agenda. This topic was about the so called declining arctic ice extent.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our March meeting (3/20/19) entitled “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity with a Doubling of CO2” which is presented as a post on this web site. Bernie discusses a multitude of problems with the faulty ECS values which have been in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 based on two models from 40 years ago that have never produced a correct prediction of global average temperature. This is bad science and even though enormous amounts of money have been spent in model development, little to nothing has been accomplished to improve these results. In fact the emphasis by the IPCC and environmentalists using all these models seems to be on man-made warming effects from CO2 when more and more as discussed in the ECS presentation, the driver of climate is very apparently natural sun based effects.
February’s forum meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich. It was based on a 6 Feb 2019 video and internet presentation by Katherine Hayhoe. Bob found numerous misstatements of fact, exaggerations, misconceptions, and apparent deliberate falsehoods in her presentation. Bob’s presentation disects this presentation and provides the results of his analysis. Following her presentation, Bob was able to make a couple of comments and ask a question. Instead of answering the question, Madam Hayhoe lectured him on his source material and lack of the “proper” credentials to ask such questions or make such comments. While she referred to those of us who are skeptical as “denialists,” Ms Hayhoe left no doubt that she is a card-carrying, true-believing, propaganda-pushing, pseudo-scientific, catostrophic, anthropogenic, global warming alarmist. Her forte appeared to be her skill as a propagandist and not as a scientist, which Bob pointed out in his presentation. While he presented references and sources for all of his claims, Katherine Hayhoe did not provide a single one. As Bob likes to say, “Folks, you can’t make this stuff up!”
Bob Endlich presented Part 1 of a summary of a book written by John Kehr titled “The Inconvenient Skeptic”. Kehr, an engineer, had decided to research the topic of climate change in order to draw his own conclusions about the validity of the claim that catastrophic climate change is putting the planet in peril. While all of Bob’s presentations are very interesting, this was one of his most interesting to date. In his book Kehr shows that plate tectonics was responsible for changing the ocean circulations that caused the Antarctic to freeze over. Prior to then, the antarctic was ice free and much warmer than it is now. This is but one gem from Bob’s summary, slides 20, 30, and 31. Check out his slide presentation for many others. Bob will be presenting at least one more part to his summary of Kehr’s book at one or more future meetings.
Our December (15 Dec 2018) meeting presentation was given by Bob Endlich, and was a critique of the 4th National Climate Assessment Volume, released on Black Friday of this year (23 November 2018). This most recent NCA Volume has been widely panned by many skeptics; even Al Gore said it was “torqued-up” during an interview with Judy Woodruff, which means Al Gore actually said they lied. Bob’s presentation exposes these incorrect statements and some omissions using data from data bases available to people who have an interest in facts. Apparently, those who wrote this NCA did not need to study data or history upon which to base their assessment. They simply made it up.
Our October meeting presentation was moved to 24 October 2018, a Wednesday, and consisted of a talk by Dr. Harold H. Doiron titled, “An independent Objective Analysis of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Issue.” Dr. Doiron (bio is here) is the Chairman of The Right Climate Stuff Research Team (web site), a group of NASA engineers and scientists who were involved in the Apollo Program and other space programs. The slides for Dr. Doiron’s presentation are contained in the above link. An abstract of his presentation can be found here.
Our August (18 Aug 2018) meeting presentation on tornadoes and tornado chasing was provided by CASF member, Jeff Passner. This presentation contains many very spectacular photos of tornadoes. As a tornado chaser, Jeff took many of the photos himself. He also provided an excellent tutorial on the genesis of tornadoes.
Dave Tofsted talked about “Why Johnny can’t read” and his analysis of the Grisham energy plan in his presentation to the CASF group at our meeting on 21 July 2018. Under Common Core teachers are told how to teach reading and cannot use their own tried and true methods. For exampled, phonetics are taught for 9 weeks and abandoned after that in favor of whole word recognition. The Grisham plan requires 50% renewables by 2030 and 80% renewables by 2040. Dave has done a fairly detailed analysis of this plan and in his presentation he discusses why the plan is doomed to failure and makes no sense from an economical standpoint.
Our June 2018 (6/16/2018) meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich. Bob looked at a
multitude of reasons why Gregg Garfin’s presentation at NM State University on 25 April 2018 was misguided and in error. Bob’s daughter, Cathy, took several photographs at our meeting and they are shown above and below. Bob’s briefing slides can be seen here.
Bob says that Dr Garfin’s tone is needlessly alarmist, but fully expected from a scientist wedded to the
UN IPCC’s charter to find ONLY human-caused CO2-fueled Global Warming. Garfin says that the outlook for the Southwest is “hotter and more arid,” but Bob provides clear evidence that the late 20th Century PDO warm period produced some of the heaviest rains in the last 2000 years. Also, it produced the highest Great Salt Lake levels, in 1983, and the highest reservoir levels in the Colorado River system. Based on
detailed literature search, Bob showed that historically droughts in the Southwest generally occur during PDO cold periods. Consequently, Garfin’s assertion that the occurance of “hot and arrid” do not generally occur together and that the data show that “cold and arrid” is the norm. This is but one example out of a multitude of examples provided by Bob where Gregg Garfin apparently needs to take a closer look at the historical data.
Bernie McCune presented (5/19/2018) an excellent video briefing by Nir Shaviv on the effect of cosmic rays on the earth’s climate. The movie can be seen at this link. Since complex material in the video was supplied at an extremely fast pace, Bernie provided a number of documents for forum members to study prior to the meeting as an aide to more easily understanding the material. These documents are available here.
For our April (4/21/2018) meeting, Bob Endlich provided a briefing on the scientific grounds for reconsidering the EPA’s carbon dioxide endangerment finding. The endangerment finding was attributed to three considerations: the physical or theoretical understanding of climate, temperature records, and the output from computer models. Bob shows how these factors are just plain incorrect. In the case of physical understanding and computer modeling, the “missing tropical hot spot” shows that; he also shows how surface temperature records have been “adjusted” to essentially eliminate their cyclic nature.
Our March (3/17/2018) presentation provided by Bob Endlich was entitled the “Madden-Julian Oscillation.” This is a mostly tropical weather system originating in the Indian Ocean and moving around the Earth in from 30 to 90 days (see slide show below in which the slides change every 7 seconds.) The MJO, which can have impressive effects on weather in the USA and the Southwest states, was not even discovered until the early 1970s. It and its effects are an active research activity. Bob also presented a small sidebar on the Maritime Continent and a more extensive sidebar on Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). The latter is what keeps the climate stable.
Our January (1/20/2018) and February (2/17/2018) presentations were on “The Future of Everything,” by Bernie McCune. It includes information on demographics, future growth, population pyramids, and other elements which the alarmists tell us are glimpses of imminent doom and climate catastrophe. The slides used for the two-part presentation are Part 1 and Part 2. Additional slides: Biggest US Industries, Labor Force Participation, and World GDP 2016 – 2030.
Our December meeting (12/16/17) presentation by Bob Endlich was on the California’s Santa Ana winds and associated wild fires. This presentation included weather charts and meteorological analyses showing that the presence of cold air and high pressure over Nevada pushes downslope winds which are the controlling factor in autumn wind-driven fires in California. The intense record- setting rainfall of the January and February 2017 provided ample moisture for grasses and weed growth; the lack of summer rains dominates the Mediterranean Climate of coastal California. While California’s Governor Jerry Brown, places the blame for this fire on climate change and refers to it as the “new normal,” it is the dominance of this ridge of high pressure and the lack of rainfall at the end of summer which set the stage for these wildfires. The shift from El Nino to La Nina Watch conditions occurred this year, and Bob showed the NWS’ pattern shift towards drought from California to South Carolina in La Nina winters. In a review of the October 2017, Wine Country fires, the presentation showed newspaper speculation that Governor Brown might have been partially responsible for the catastrophic October fires starting in the first place when he vetoed a bill that would have paid infrastructure funding to reduce the likelihood of sparking from power lines, poles and similar structures.
For our November meeting (11/18/17) Bob Endlich provided an interesting talk on precipitation, measurements, and measurement problems. His presentation was triggered by an analysis done by Dr. David Legates of U Del, presented at the America First Energy Conference in Houston on 11/9/17. The biggest problem is wind effect. In the early 1990’s National Weather Service began using precipitation gages with wind shields to slow the wind. These improvements resulted in improved catch efficiency and an accompanying upward shift in the measured precipitation amounts. Climate alarmists, unaware of the new instrumentation’s effect on measurements, claim this was strong evidence of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming. Recent Precipitation Measurements and More False Claims of Global Warming Effects.
The weather and circumstances surrounding the recent California forest fires and some climate history were discussed by Bob Endlich at our October meeting (10/21/17).
A Crash Course in Logic and Its Relationship to the Climate Change Debate presented by Dave Toftsted, PhD, at our September 2017 meeting (9/16/17.)
The Twilight of Abundance was presented by Bernie McCune at our 21 January 2017 meeting.
Bernie McCune provided the February (2/20/16) meeting presentation on Ocean Circulations and their potential effects on climate. This link provides some background information on obtaining ice core proxy data related to ocean cycles and temperature data.
The July Meeting presentation (7/18/15) by Bernie McCune was about heat from the oceans rather than the heat being absorbed by them as we so often hear about and the related ocean circulation patterns.
Bob Endlich provided the February 2015 (2/21/15) presentation titled “Deliberate Deception of Climate Change” in which he provided the history and examples of how the climate change hoax developed over the years.
Discussions regarding a proposed “global warming” debate (forum) took place in the Fall of 2012 between (and among) Bob Endlich, Connie Falk, and several other alarmists. Of course the debate never happened, because the alarmists backed out of it as they almost always do. This likely happens whenever they come to realize weakness of their arguments for catostrophic human-caused global warming.