This special page is for the purpose of making available to interested parties the presentation slides and other presentation materials used at our monthly CASF meetings. These materials will be available to members and others who were unable to attend a particular meeting and also for future reference during discussions or when preparing blogs or other presentations.
_______20 May 2023______
The presentation for our May meeting (20 May 23) was provided by Bernie McCune on “Reality of Energy Switch.” He is talking about the switch to renewable energy, and he goes on to show that predictions into the next decade by Lawrence Livermore National Labs and the Energy Information Agency show expected realistic projections for actual energy use that indicate that a transition to “Net Zero” anytime soon is mostly a “fairy tale.” He provides a variety of charts and graphs to back up this argument.
He supplements his presentation by providing a report by Mark P. Mills Senior Fellow Manhattan Institute, titled the “’Energy Transition’ Delusion: A Reality Reset,” in which Mills shows that “the lessons of the recent decade make it clear that SWB [Solar, Wind, and Batteries] technologies cannot be surged in times of need, are neither inherently ‘clean’ nor even independent of hydrocarbons, and are not cheap.”
Greenpeace cofounder, Dr Patrick Moore, discusses in this video the importance of carbon dioxide to all life on earth and disputes the claims by activists that it creates an existential threat to the planet through excessive greenhouse warming. Bernie supports Dr. Moore’s view with a statement and graphs in this short summary. He also provides a narrative describing two theories for global warming. The first theory is that carbon dioxide drives global average temperatures and he shows why it is wrong. The second theory, which is better supported by the data, is that global average temperatures are driven by global average surface temperature trends and cycles. This is updated by this epilog to the “two theories” paper, in which he discusses the new real human-caused warming – namely the urban heat island effect.
This Youtube video by Lawrence Livermore National Labs explains energy flow charts (Sankey Diagrams) and is provided to aid in understanding what goes into energy use and what part of input energy is discarded or wasted.
Also, this link provides a very detailed textbook into all of the important energy issues.
At the end of his presentation, Bernie gave an additional presentation on Sankey Waterflow diagrams for the U.S., SW states, and he presented some ideas for shifting water from water rich areas of North America to water stressed areas.
______15 April 2023_______
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our April meeting (15 April 23) on Very Low Dewpoints in the Borderland Region. The very dry air extending over portions of New Mexico is one of several key elements needed to create conditions favorable for the formation of the severe thunderstorms that spawn tornados. Another element is strong winds at the surface and aloft. When this area of dry air and strong winds mover further to the east they encounter the third key element, namely moist air flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. These elements combine to cause the atmospheric instability required to form the severe thunderstorms. This occurred on 30 March 2023 creating the conditions necessary for the outbreak of tornados that occurred in the midwest through southeast portions of the country. Bob went on to present and explain some of the tools used by meteorologists to predict the weather with emphasis on severe weather. He rebutted claims by alarmists that climate change was producing more severe and more frequent tornados. A plot of the number of more severe tornados (f3 and above) by year clearly showed a decreasing trend. Bob’s briefing slides contain many interesting elements of severe weather and weather forecasting.
______18 March 2023______
Our March meeting presentation was provided by Jim New, who recently became interested in our forum after seeing our web site on line. Jim described how through logic and critical thinking had concluded that climate change was not a real problem and the hysteria that surrounds it is manufactured through an intensive propaganda campaign. He provided a number of examples of what he saw as nonsensical arguments that were used to promote the hysteria and why science and logic can be used to show that these arguments are wrong.
______18 February 2023_____
Our February meeting presentation (18 February 2023) was provided by Bob Endlich. The title of his presentation was “Proxy Temperatures and Historical Records show continuation of present warming is NOT an ‘EXISTENTIAL THREAT’ to humans” and he proved this hypothesis using sets of data with most consisting of various types of measurements. His slides for this presentation are provided in the above link.
______21 January 2023______
Bill Gutman gave a presentation for our January meeting related to the various launch systems used at the Space Port where he had been employed for a number of years. His slides are available in the link just above. His post on this same topic, titled “Kinetic Space Launch,” is available also for additional details.
______17 December 2022_____
The presentation for our December meeting (17 December 2022) was provided by Bob Endlich and titled “Recent Words from Richard Lindzen with Comments by Bob“. This presentation was based on a post and a paper by Richard Lindzen, MIT Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences. Both the post and the paper are referenced in Bob’s slides along with active links to them. Bob’s presentation provides a quote from Dr. Lindzen and then adds his comments regarding that quote. Both Bob and the Professor lament the lack of science backing an absurd climate change narrative being made by climate alarmists. Bob ends his presentation with the following quote from Professor Lindzen:
“What historians will definitely wonder about in future centuries is how deeply flawed logic, obscured by shrewd and unrelenting propaganda, actually enabled a coalition of powerful special interests to convince nearly everyone in the world that CO2 from human industry was a dangerous, planet-destroying toxin. It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.”
______19 November 2022_____
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our November meeting (19 November 2022) titled “Hurricane Michael–Data Including Tree Damage Data Show that It Was Less than Category 5” in which he argued that NOAA’s classification of Hurricane Michael as Category 5 was incorrect. Bob presented anemometer measurements from Michael’s landfall area along with photos showing tree damage inflicted by Michael. He then showed that neither wind measurements nor the photographic evidence supported a hurricane Category 5 determination, based on the standards contained in the Saffir-Simpson scale and the data presented in NOAA’s report of 17 May 2019. Bob questions NOAA’s use of flight-level winds “adjusted” to the surface when wind measurements and photographic evidence show winds less than Category 5 strength.
______15 October 2022______
Our October meeting (15 October 2022) featured a critique by Bob Endlich of a 2-hour video produced by the GeoengineeringWatch.org titled “The Dimming.” Geoengineering Watch believes that aircraft contrails are actually spray patterns of particulates intended to scatter visible light from the sun to reduce the incoming solar radiation at ground level. Bob says he watched the first 15 minutes of the video and then stopped, because by then, he had found so many inaccuracies and falsehoods there were more than enough examples for the presentation. Bob used logic and measurements to refute many of the false claims in this video. He did this by presenting ten or so quotes from the video and then using facts and measurements to refute each claim.
_____17 September 2022______
For our September meeting (17 September 2022) Bernie McCune talked about a very important feature of sea surface temperatures (SST) that significantly affects our weather, namely la Nina and some associated extreme weather. His presentation is titled, “Extreme Weather During La Nina Events, and it includes a brief side-bar on global wind circulation patterns that was presented by Bob Endlich. Bernie provides numerous charts and images that help to illustrate his message, and he includes an addendum at the end with supplementary information.
________27 August 2022_____
Our August 2022 meeting was held after a one-week delay due to issues with the Wuhan virus, and Bob Endlich provided the presentation. The title of his presentation was “Especially if you live in New Mexico, you might think Climate Activists have lost the power of critical thought, and you’d be right.” He goes on to demonstrate the many, many ways that alarmists seem to be either ignorant of the facts or deliberately ignoring them in order to support their narrative that in the Southwest humans are causing temperatures to rise and rainfall to decrease while the exact opposite is actually occurring. Bob’s presentation is full of examples based on factual records of how alarmists claims are wrong
________16 July 2022_______
Bernie McCune gave the presentation for our July (16 July 22) forum meeting. Prior to the meeting Bernie sent out a pdf file as homework for members to prepare for his presentation. The narrative of Bernie’s talk is “Uninformed Ignorance and Outright Propaganda in Climate Science, Covid, Energy Issues and the Vote.” Although most of his talk concentrated on the climate science and energy parts, the health and voting irregularities suffer from the same uninformed ignorance and outright propaganda. Bernie referenced several other files in his talk. The Perfect Energy Storm discusses our government’s failure to do due diligence prior to attempting to kill an existing economical working system and attempting to replace it with an untested, unreliable, and mostly unworkable system. In defense of lockdowns is about the ineffective and unpopular lockdowns as a defense in the Covid 19 pandemic, and now faced with the truth our government continues to double down on its false claims. Disease Mitigation Efforts in Defense of Pandemic Influenza talks about the likely effectiveness and likely adverse consequences of the range of disease mitigation measures.
________18 June 2022_______
Once again, hard-working Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our June (18 June 22) forum meeting. His presentation carried the title, “A Year Later – Alarmism and Claims the Pacific Northwest Heatwave was Human Caused,” and in it, he critiqued and debunked an NPR tale which made numerous unsubstantiated claims that the heatwave in the northwest was human caused. As Bob has pointed out in numerous presentations and blog posts, the alarmist crowd have a pervasively bad habit of making statements and claims regarding climate change that are not backed up by the observed measurements and records that are routinely kept. The claims regarding the Pacific Northwest fall into this same category of failing to be backed up by the complete records. The slides used in his presentation are in the link provided above.
________21 May 2022________
Our meeting presentation for the May consisted of a video titled “Climate Science 101“ by David Siegel. This video can be accessed by clicking the link above, accessing it through the menu item Special Pages > Climate Videos Recommended by Bob or by searching for the title on Youtube. Here is how the video is introduced on American Right TV:
[The video is also available on Youtube and on American Right TV. Ed]
If you were wondering whether climate change is real – the short answer is no.
In the following video, author David Siegel explains why the climate agenda is a big fat lie and that the powers that be, are hell bent on having all of us in a state of confusion and fear, to make money.
Children are always taught about the planet when they are small, they are all taught that plants make oxygen, and that we as human beings, breathe oxygen.
This is the most basic way you can explain to a child the importance of plants.
What do plants eat? Well, sunshine and carbon dioxide – what we breathe out of our mouths many times a day, for our entire life.
So, when exactly did carbon dioxide become a problem?
When globalists like Al Gore wanted to basically set up a cash cow, by taxing everyday people to pay for an invisible and unmeasurable threat – CO2.
In terms of carbon dioxide, there is no threat – at all – to humans. We need it more than we don’t – obviously.
Tell that to all the climate change fanatics, however, and they’ll all collectively lose their minds and tell you “The science is settled” when that is nowhere near the truth.
Science has never been settled on climate change and those who come up with “research studies” about how we are all going to die if we don’t somehow manage to cool the Earth – are usually paid by those who want those results.
________16 April 2022________
Steve McGee provided the presentation at our April (16 April 22) forum meeting. The title of his presentation was “Climate: Change and Constancy, Predictability and Unpredictability.” He began his talk with a definition for “propaganda” and examples of how propaganda is used in society to lessen turmoil and division. He went on to discuss how propaganda is used for the purpose of describing and promoting climate change and to discuss and compare climate change “projections” with weather forecasts and predictability and unpredictability. He went on to discuss how global warming may have occurred but presumed changes due to global warming have not occurred. His presentation provided many examples of hard science versus propaganda and a few that had elements of both.
________19 March 2022________
Climatology and Weather Effects in the Early Ground War in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine was the title of Bob Endlich’s presentation at our March (19 March 2022) forum meeting. Bob’s presentation included many images of activities associated with the war. After only four weeks, early expectations by media elites were way off the mark. Weather and weather effects had a dramatic impact on the war, confining attacking Russian vehicles to paved highways and roads, eliminating potential attacker advantages of cross-country maneuver using tracked vehicles, giving the Ukrainians tactical advantage in fighting the Russians, who were confined to established roads. Early pronouncements that weather’s effects on the terrain would be no factor because of the expertise of the Russian invaders were wrong. Rather than frozen ground, invaders encountered extremely muddy ground. News images showed Russian tanks stuck in the mud, sitting duck targets, after venturing off established roads. Satellite images showed convoys stopped, unable to be resupplied and unable to venture cross country. Based on his experience forecasting weather’s effects on the US Army’s VII Corps in Europe, observations of TV and Internet sources, Bob concluded that weather and weather effects controlled the early days and weeks of the ground war. Failure by the Russian attackers in these early days to achieve surprise through cross-country maneuver, and the ability of the Ukrainian defenders to shape the defensive battle may have fatally blunted offensive blows by the Russians. Early claims by many “experts” have been proved wrong. Only time will tell the outcome.
________19 February 2022_______
The February (19 February 2022) meeting presentation was provided by Jeff Passner on “The 10 December 2021 Tornado Outbreak“. He began his presentation with a basic review of tornado structure and followed this with classic tornado formation, the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, large winter tornado outbreaks that have occurred previously, and a couple of examples of large winter tornado outbreaks that have occurred.
He then discussed in detail the most recent outbreak on 10 December 2021 including the 500 millibar and surface weather maps based on observations taken at 7 A.M. EST on the 10th. He also showed a series of weather map predictions issued by the Storm Prediction Center located in Norman, OK.
Jeff’s Slide 21 is an atmospheric sounding from Little Rock on 11 Dec 2021 at 0000Z, plotted on a Skew-T Log-P thermodynamic diagram, a kind of graph paper for meteorologists. Readers who need an introduction or refresher on the Skew-T diagram can look at slides 9-16 of Bob’s lesson at https://casf.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Monsoon-Transition-Hurricanes-Cries-of-Crisis_11_Sep_2019-1.pdf.
Finally, he showed how the tornadoes had hit Kentucky and in particular Mayfield, Kentucky including weather maps and numerous photos of the damage to everything in their paths.
The media and a few alarmist scientists such as Michael Mann could not pass up the opportunity to blame the outbreak on global warming and Jeff provided quotes from several of them. Jeff examines these comments and concludes that “surface temperatures are only a tiny part of the balance that is needed to generate a tornado.” In the end, he concludes that there are no conclusions and that we still have a lot to learn about tornadoes.
Bob Endlich discussed the final 5 slides where he shows that contrary to the predictions by Michael Mann et. al. that we can expect increasing numbers of these severe events due to global warming, the data show that the number of strong tornadoes is trending down and not up.
_______15 January 2022_________________
The January (15 January 2022) presentation was provided by Bernie McCune on Dr. Peter McCullough and Dr. Robert Malone on how not to deal with the Wuhan-19 Pandemic and a Primer of a Plan to deal with the next one.
His presentation not only highlighted the many things that the governments of most countries did in an attempt to help slow down or end the pandemic but also those things they did not do that they should have done. His presentation also provided a primer on how to deal with the next pandemic. His briefing was based on writings and briefings provided by Dr. Peter McCullough and Dr. Robert Malone. He also referenced (and summarized) at least two of his previous presentations (our first meeting after the NM lockdowns in Sept 2020 “Introduction to Epidemiology Models and Data” and the April 2021 “Wuhan Pandemic in 3 Parts” presentation).
Bernie provided some reading homework for the group several days prior to the forum meeting that consisted of a paper in the form of a journal article outlining alternative treatment plans along with information on the effectiveness of such treatments. He also included a guide in PDF form that provided instructions on home-based treatment of Covid-19.
_______18 December 2021_____________________
Bob Endlich provided the presentation, a critique of a recent AARP Bulletin article on climate, for our December (18 December 2021) meeting. Too often, individual’s writing articles make false assumptions regarding what events they consider to be unusual and the causes of such events. Their assumptions are rarely based on scientific studies or observed or measured data and all too often are incorrectly attributed to “climate change.” The observations, measurements, and statistics related to such events are easily accessible to them on the web, but they nevertheless base their articles on their apparent assumptions rather than the actual data. Consequently, anyone willing to access the actual data will find it relatively easy to disprove their assumptions and conclusions based on them. This is precisely what Bob has done with his presentation and, once again he has clearly shown how this AARP Bulletin article is rife with wildly incorrect assumptions on ordinary cold weather in Texas, and an extremely rare weather event in the Bay area, colossally mistaking weather events for climate change.
________20 November 2021_______________
Our November meeting (20 November 2021) presentation was provided by Glen Brown. This paper describes the history of oil and gas in the state of Oklahoma in decade time slices. Each decade highlights the technological advancements that drove the exploration business. The recent advances in horizontal drilling and shale hydrocarbon generating windows is discussed in detail. Finally the future of hydrocarbons in worldwide exploration is detailed and debunks the theory that the world is running out of hydrocarbons. Instead the advancements in technology show that hydrocarbons are in plentiful supply worldwide for centuries to come providing energy security to the world population.
________16 October 2021___________
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our October (16 October 2021) meeting. His presentation, “Climate Limits” discussed the failures of climate change models and the lack of evidence that human-caused carbon dioxide has any significant effect on climate. In addition, he provided Imaginary Climate Crises by Lindzen and Doubt and Certainty in Climate Crisis prior to his presentation as supplemental reading information for the group. His slide presentation contains links to a variety of supporting information including an excellent video discussing the long missing tropospheric hot spot over the tropics by Dr. John Robson of the Climate Discussion Nexus organization.
Our September (18 September 2021) meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich. Rainfall resulting from Hurricane Ida created problems for New York City, and the pearl clutching Chicken Littles predictably and on queue began blaming it all on “climate change.” Bob unpacks these unfounded claims in his presentation entitled, “Post Hurricane Ida’s Effects on NYC – Natural Rainfall, Excessive Runoff, Lousy Drainage NOT Human-Caused Global Warming.” The link provides a pdf file with the slides from Bob’s presentation.
The presentation for the August (21 August 2021) meeting was provided by CASF member, Glen Brown, on the subject of “Worldwide Seismic Activity and Recent Oklahoma Earthquakes“. It was based on his previously published paper on the same subject. An abstract with references is provided in the link. This paper published in 2014 presents an overview of worldwide seismicity and evolution of our understanding of earthquake activity in time patterned clusters of high magnitude mega-quakes greater than 8.5 magnitude. Two large earthquakes in Oklahoma occurred in 1952 and 2011 are time spatially correlated to worldwide seismicity mega-quake cycles.
The ability to detect earthquakes has dramatically increased since 1960 when it expanded due to nuclear test site monitoring. The current seismic grid in the US and around the world is shown to have an over sampling bias vs the past. The distribution of naturally occurring 5 to 7.8 magnitude quakes is documented to occur in 32 of the lower 48 states most connected by deep seated fault systems.
In Oklahoma swarms of smaller earthquakes that were occurring were shown to be inversely located from oil and gas producers. Oil and Gas operations involving horizontal drilling, fracking and production were not found to be the cause of the earthquakes. Post publication these swarms were determined to be caused by improper techniques used in wastewater injection involving basement rock. These injectors were identified, plugged back and the earthquake activity returned to normal.
CASF member, Steve McGee, gave the presentation for our July 2021 (17 July 2021) meeting. Steve has written a book called “Chill” about Climate Change that is currently for sale on Amazon.com. This is a revision of a previous version of his earlier book with the same title. Steve’s presentation began with a discussion of how to create a self-published book on Amazon and other internet sites. The remaining part of his presentation involved a comparison of the figures in his revised book with those in the original book. You may view Steve’s presentation slides here.
Our June (19 June 2021) meeting presentation on El Nino and La Nina: The Controls on Rainfall and Drought in the Western USA was provided by Bob Endlich. As indicated in the title, it is El Nino and La Nina that control the weather conditions causing above normal rainy conditions (El Nino) and above normal drought conditions (La Nina). This clearly contradicts the frequent newspaper and televisions stories that attribute any unusual weather, especially drought, to global warming or climate change. Bob provided detailed information on what these phenomena are and their causes. He also provided detailed measurements for New Mexico showing a decreasing temperature trends and an increasing precipitation trends. This is exactly opposite of what the climate alarmists have been saying. One interesting fact was that in 1986 NM had the highest precipitation amount in the past 2000 years based on the tree ring data published in the NY Times. The claim that the drought over the past 20 years or so is historically unusual for New Mexico is shown not to be true, when you can see from the NY Times graphic past droughts in NM have lasted for 100 or more years at a time. For more interesting details, take a look at Bob’s slides in the above link.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation “Folly in Biden’s Climate Summit“ for our May (15 May 2021) meeting. There was a lot of misinformation and just plain false information passed around during Biden’s recent virtual climate summit. Bob puts these representations to the lie during his presentation. His slides are contained in the link.
Our April (17 April 2021) meeting presentation was provided by Bernie McCune and was titled, “Wuhan in 3 Parts.” Bernie’s briefing slides are in the PDF file entitled Wuhan in 3 Parts. The first part consists of slides providing a review of Bernie’s briefing presented at our September 2020 meeting. The slides in the second part pertain to the Wuhan story after September 2020. The 3rd part contains slides about being prepared for future disasters. The narrative for the second part of his briefing is in Wuhan Story After September 2020 – Part 2, and the narrative with the discussion of being prepared for all disasters is contained in Part 3 In the case of Wuhan or Any Disasters – Be Prepared. Bernie also provided additional detailed information in the following 4 files: The Death of Covid Tyranny discusses how the covid crisis was used to dominate the public, but the end of this tyranny is clearly on the horizon. Capitalism Is What Will Defeat Covid is about how the hated pharmaceutical corporations will save the world from covid. Japanese Radiation provides details regarding the damage done to a Japanese Nuclear Power plant by the 2012 Tsunami that was generated by a powerful earthquake, and how the Japanese Government and corporations reacted to it. Japan 2012 Tsunami discusses another aspect of the damage done by the 2012 Tsunami in Japan not related to radiation but involving near total property damage in some locations.
The March (20 March 2021) meeting presentation by Bob Endlich was about weather modification and more specifically cloud seeding to enhance rainfall amounts (Human-Caused Climate Change? Possible Lessons from Weather Modification Operations During the Vietnam War). Much of his presentation was about the use of cloud seeding during the Vietnam war for the purpose of slowing or stopping enemy movements of war fighting supplies to the south. Much of this information was once highly classified but has now been declassified and provides a very interesting source of information about the history of the war. Bob also talked about scientific research that involved cloud seeding operations mostly in the southwest US during the monsoon season. The results of this research has been published in American Meteorological Society Journals. He also talked about the politics of weather modification as a tool of war.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for the February meeting (20 Feb 2021). His presentation was titled, “Predictions – Pitfalls and Failures.” Anyone can make a prediction and most people do, but for a prediction to be credible, it must be backed up with a lot of study, research, and hard work, and that is something that most people making predictions don’t do. Obviously, those who put the work into it end up with better results, but even they are frequently wrong. Bernie talks about the different kinds of predictions which include weather forecasts, climate change forecasts, the results of political elections, and others. His briefing slides contain several links to reference material. He provides for more details additional reference material in “Videos and Reports” and a scientific paper by J. Scott Armstrong on “Evaluating Forecasting Methods“. Regarding our most recent Presidential election, he included a link in his slides to a very interesting video that summarizes the election fraud that occurred. Finally, he included an interesting article titled , “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election” by Time magazine on how a group of individuals, which included corporate CEOs and other like minded people, ensured that this last election was well run and free of any significant election fraud regardless of what President Trump said about it. It is an excellent example of how true believers must exist in an alternate universe, but it also goes to show that you can correctly forecast the outcome if you know it is fixed. In the youtube video by Heartland USA, they take this Time article to task and suggest that Time is admitting that the election was rigged when they say this group of people ensured that the election had the “right” outcome.
There was no presentation in January, because January’s meeting was cancelled.
Hard working Bob Endlich was once again the presenter at the December (19 December 2020) meeting. His presentation was about the recent election and the massive fraud that occurred. Yes, contrary to MSM proclamations, there are lots and lots of evidence of that fraud witnessed by hundreds, if not thousands, of patriotic Americans who signed sworn affidavits regarding what they witnessed. So how is this related to climate change? Joe Biden has stated that, if elected, he will return to the faulty Paris accords that President Trump had taken us out of.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our November (21 November 2020) meeting. His presentation was entitled Bob’s Analysis of Dave Duboi’s Climate Education Presentation. Duboi’s presentation on 17 April 2018 was part of the NMSU Climate Education series of presentation and carried the title, “Why are we concerned about a changing climate.” Here are the movies of the El Nino and the La Nina.
Our October (17 October 2020) meeting presentation was provided by Bernie McCune. His presentation concerned “Physics vs Modeled CO2.” A major conclusion of his talk is that a doubling of CO2 concentrations would be of little significance in the overall scheme of things. Bernie based his presentation on the attached document written by W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer.
Also, a Climate Nexus video narrated by Dr. John Dobson discusses the faulty assumptions being used in models. This video also can be found via the menu item: Special Page > Climate Videos Recommended by Bob.
The document in the below link is by Will Happer with some more detail on CO2 and climate change issues:
As a side bar, Bernie spoke about the Wuhan and Climate in which he showed the expected trends of the Wuhan virus and compared them with the actual trends of the virus as a function of the climatological areas of the world. He also spoke about the case and death graphics for a few of the countries in the Wuhan and Climate presentation, which show the recent case rise while the lack of death increase indicates that there is a “casedemic” or “testdemic” occuring while the Wuhan season winds down.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our first meeting following the second shutdown of NM restaurants by our esteemed Governor Grisham. Restaurants were closed immediately prior to our scheduled July meeting. Since having our meetings has been tied to the Wuhan virus pandemic, it seems quite appropriate for the topic for this meeting to pertain to the pandemic. Bernie has been doing a lot of research on this disease and medical and government reactions to it, and he is more knowledgeable on this than most. Most people will find a lot of items of interest and learn new things by reading Bernies’s briefing entitled “Introduction to Virus Epidemiology Models and Data and the Wuhan Pandemic”. Bernie also provided this item on a researcher from China, who coauthored a scientific paper providing evidence that the Wuhan virus was developed in a laboratory. She provided a link to her paper on Twitter and Twitter suspended her account as a result. I guess nobody ever accused Twitter of being non-political or objective.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our first meeting (June 20, 2020) since the Pandemic hit. This presentation is a bit different in that it does not discuss global warming. Instead it is a very interesting pictorial presentation on his visit as a guest of John Shipe and his wife to the Holy Land. Bob’s slide presentation is broken into four parts:
Part I (Geographic-Geologic-Historic-Background)
Part II (Israel Sites Visited on 14 Feb 2020 )
Part III (Israel Sites Visited on 15 Feb 2020)
Part IV (Israel Sites Visited on 16 Feb 2020)
Our February meeting presentation (15 Feb 2020) was provided by Roger Dombrowski on oil and gas from shale. Roger Dombrowski’s is a civil engineer whose career was spent in managing and operating oil field drilling equipment and activities. He began his presentation with a description of the geology of oil containing source rock, reservoir rock, and traps. While he talked about conventional oil drilling, most of his presentation involved hydraulic fracturing or fracking which produces both natural gas and crude oil. His briefing slides in the above link contain additional details of the fracking process.
Steve McGee provided the January 2020 meeting presentation on the subject of his recently published book entitled “Chill: 49 Reasons to Worry Less about Climate Change.” If you are worried about the effects of climate change, then this book is for you. Steve’s new book is available for sale on Amazon.com.
Bernie McCune provided our December 2019 meeting (21 Dec 19) presentation on the many problems associated with going to a high percentage or total renewable energy program. He began his talk by discussing the dubiousness of the hypothesis that CO2 controls the climate. He then went on to talk about many of the problems associated with the so-called renewable energy program. Much of what he talked about was based on an excellent, comprehensive report researched and written by Mark Mills. Bernie emphasized that water vapor is the strongest absorber of infrared energy and talked about measuring insolation using a Normal Incidence Pyrheliometer (NIP) at the White Sands Missile Range solar furnace. In addition, Bernie presented a short video by a very intelligent young woman who has a love and respect for science and is obviously well informed on the topic of climate. We highly recommend this video for anyone interested in climate change.
Our 16 November 2019 meeting presentation by Bob Endlich was entitled “Climate Crisis 2019, Hurricanes Dorian and Michael, Winter Outlook, Proof CO2 isn’t important, 536 AD”. As indicated by the title, this briefing covered a lot of ground but mainly centered on the misinformation, blown seasonal climate predictions, and impossible to believe topics which demonstrate the error of the alarmist hypothesis that “CO2 controls the climate,” and that today’s temperatures are far from being “unprecedented,” if you look at the data.
Bob Endlich provided a presentation entitled “Deconstructing an Alarmist Article Examining Sources Standards and Data” at the October 2019 meeting in response to a climate alarmist article written by Leah Romero and published by the Las Cruces Sun-New on 19 September 2019. Bob had noted that almost every so-called fact based on data in the Romero article was faulty, and explains these faults in this presentation.
For the September 2019 meeting, Bob Endlich presented a very in-the-news topic, the alleged crisis in the Amazon, “Fires in the Rain Forest,” brought to the fore by a tweeted image from France’s President Macron shortly before the G7 summit in August. What Bob showed was this was another instance of Fake News brought to us in living color by the main-stream media. When you actually look at the images instead of the colors in the photo copy it is plain that the fires are not in Amazon Rainforest, but in land which previously had been forest, cut down this year or years before, and set ablaze by farmers attempting to enhance crop productivity by adding the ash to the soil. Bob ranks a video by TIME at the top of the Fake News List with the largest number of whoppers in the shortest TIME.
Bob Endlich provided the presentation for our August meeting (17 August 2019) entitled “The 2019 Heat Wave in Europe and Beyond – What The Media Didn’t Tell You.” CNN showed photos of a dog sled team pulling their sled through ankle-deep water in Greenland. This was seemingly a spectacular example of “climate catastrophe,” their words, but a shallow layer of water on top of the ice is not all that unusual for June after over a month of 24 hours per day sun. Such occurrences in Greenland were recorded in the 1800s, and Bob showed a photo of it also happening in 1984. New all-time high temperatures attributed to climate change were supposedly set in Germany, England, and France, but Bob shows that these records are invalid because the meteorological instrumentation was placed in locations that did not meet World Meteorological Organization siting requirements, and as a result, temperatures were artificially high because of poor exposure. The warm temperatures were the result of a weather event and not human-caused climate change as claimed. The June weather event was an omega stationary blocking pattern that caused a persistent warm southerly flow from the African Sahara up over Europe resulting in higher than normal temperatures in the region. Omega patterns at jet stream altitudes are not rare events. The July event was one hot day in a warm summer, but not nearly as hot as the Summer of 1976. Claims from alarmists and the media were also made regarding Arctic sea ice extent reaching record lows, but a check of the actual measurement data show this to be untrue as well; 2012 was hotter with much less Arctic Sea Ice extent.
The topic for our July 2019 meeting presentation was titled, “The Oceans as the Main Climate Influence” and was provided to the forum by Bernie McCune. Since about 71 percent of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas, ocean currents and cycles have a significant and profound effect on the climate. The salinity of sea water causes it to freeze at a lower temperature (28 F) than fresh water (32 F). As a side note, Bernie said that sea ice does not contain any salt, because only the water portion of sea water freezes and the sodium chloride separates out in the process. Consequently, the sea water immediately beneath the ice contains an even higher concentration of salt than the sea water from which the ice formed. This means that the sea water beneath the ice is more dense than that at deeper levels and it sinks, and this process becomes a contributor to deep ocean currents. Bernie has also provided a supplemental narrative that explains in more detail the great global conveyor that moves the ocean waters around the globe represented by the various currents and ocean cycles that affect the climate.
Mike Wallace came down from Albuquerque to visit the forum and provided the 15 June 2019 presentation about “Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components
towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western US.” The slides from his presentation may be viewed here.
Our May 2019 (18 May 2019) meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich on another topic casting doubt on the alarmist climate change agenda. This topic was about the so called declining arctic ice extent.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our March meeting (3/20/19) entitled “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity with a Doubling of CO2” which is presented as a post on this web site. Bernie discusses a multitude of problems with the faulty ECS values which have been in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 based on two models from 40 years ago that have never produced a correct prediction of global average temperature. This is bad science and even though enormous amounts of money have been spent in model development, little to nothing has been accomplished to improve these results. In fact the emphasis by the IPCC and environmentalists using all these models seems to be on man-made warming effects from CO2 when more and more as discussed in the ECS presentation, the driver of climate is very apparently natural sun based effects.
February’s forum meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich. It was based on a 6 Feb 2019 video and internet presentation by Katherine Hayhoe. Bob found numerous misstatements of fact, exaggerations, misconceptions, and apparent deliberate falsehoods in her presentation. Bob’s presentation disects this presentation and provides the results of his analysis. Following her presentation, Bob was able to make a couple of comments and ask a question. Instead of answering the question, Madam Hayhoe lectured him on his source material and lack of the “proper” credentials to ask such questions or make such comments. While she referred to those of us who are skeptical as “denialists,” Ms Hayhoe left no doubt that she is a card-carrying, true-believing, propaganda-pushing, pseudo-scientific, catostrophic, anthropogenic, global warming alarmist. Her forte appeared to be her skill as a propagandist and not as a scientist, which Bob pointed out in his presentation. While he presented references and sources for all of his claims, Katherine Hayhoe did not provide a single one. As Bob likes to say, “Folks, you can’t make this stuff up!”
Bob Endlich presented Part 1 of a summary of a book written by John Kehr titled “The Inconvenient Skeptic”. Kehr, an engineer, had decided to research the topic of climate change in order to draw his own conclusions about the validity of the claim that catastrophic climate change is putting the planet in peril. While all of Bob’s presentations are very interesting, this was one of his most interesting to date. In his book Kehr shows that plate tectonics was responsible for changing the ocean circulations that caused the Antarctic to freeze over. Prior to then, the antarctic was ice free and much warmer than it is now. This is but one gem from Bob’s summary, slides 20, 30, and 31. Check out his slide presentation for many others. Bob will be presenting at least one more part to his summary of Kehr’s book at one or more future meetings.
Our December (15 Dec 2018) meeting presentation was given by Bob Endlich, and was a critique of the 4th National Climate Assessment Volume, released on Black Friday of this year (23 November 2018). This most recent NCA Volume has been widely panned by many skeptics; even Al Gore said it was “torqued-up” during an interview with Judy Woodruff, which means Al Gore actually said they lied. Bob’s presentation exposes these incorrect statements and some omissions using data from data bases available to people who have an interest in facts. Apparently, those who wrote this NCA did not need to study data or history upon which to base their assessment. They simply made it up.
Our October meeting presentation was moved to 24 October 2018, a Wednesday, and consisted of a talk by Dr. Harold H. Doiron titled, “An independent Objective Analysis of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Issue.” Dr. Doiron (bio is here) is the Chairman of The Right Climate Stuff Research Team (web site), a group of NASA engineers and scientists who were involved in the Apollo Program and other space programs. The slides for Dr. Doiron’s presentation are contained in the above link. An abstract of his presentation can be found here.
Our August (18 Aug 2018) meeting presentation on tornadoes and tornado chasing was provided by CASF member, Jeff Passner. This presentation contains many very spectacular photos of tornadoes. As a tornado chaser, Jeff took many of the photos himself. He also provided an excellent tutorial on the genesis of tornadoes.
Dave Tofsted talked about “Why Johnny can’t read” and his analysis of the Grisham energy plan in his presentation to the CASF group at our meeting on 21 July 2018. Under Common Core teachers are told how to teach reading and cannot use their own tried and true methods. For exampled, phonetics are taught for 9 weeks and abandoned after that in favor of whole word recognition. The Grisham plan requires 50% renewables by 2030 and 80% renewables by 2040. Dave has done a fairly detailed analysis of this plan and in his presentation he discusses why the plan is doomed to failure and makes no sense from an economical standpoint.
Our June 2018 (6/16/2018) meeting presentation was provided by Bob Endlich. Bob looked at a
multitude of reasons why Gregg Garfin’s presentation at NM State University on 25 April 2018 was misguided and in error. Bob’s daughter, Cathy, took several photographs at our meeting and they are shown above and below. Bob’s briefing slides can be seen here.
Bob says that Dr Garfin’s tone is needlessly alarmist, but fully expected from a scientist wedded to the
UN IPCC’s charter to find ONLY human-caused CO2-fueled Global Warming. Garfin says that the outlook for the Southwest is “hotter and more arid,” but Bob provides clear evidence that the late 20th Century PDO warm period produced some of the heaviest rains in the last 2000 years. Also, it produced the highest Great Salt Lake levels, in 1983, and the highest reservoir levels in the Colorado River system. Based on
detailed literature search, Bob showed that historically droughts in the Southwest generally occur during PDO cold periods. Consequently, Garfin’s assertion that the occurance of “hot and arrid” do not generally occur together and that the data show that “cold and arrid” is the norm. This is but one example out of a multitude of examples provided by Bob where Gregg Garfin apparently needs to take a closer look at the historical data.
Bernie McCune presented (5/19/2018) an excellent video briefing by Nir Shaviv on the effect of cosmic rays on the earth’s climate. The movie can be seen at this link. Since complex material in the video was supplied at an extremely fast pace, Bernie provided a number of documents for forum members to study prior to the meeting as an aide to more easily understanding the material. These documents are available here.
For our April (4/21/2018) meeting, Bob Endlich provided a briefing on the scientific grounds for reconsidering the EPA’s carbon dioxide endangerment finding. The endangerment finding was attributed to three considerations: the physical or theoretical understanding of climate, temperature records, and the output from computer models. Bob shows how these factors are just plain incorrect. In the case of physical understanding and computer modeling, the “missing tropical hot spot” shows that; he also shows how surface temperature records have been “adjusted” to essentially eliminate their cyclic nature.
Our March (3/17/2018) presentation provided by Bob Endlich was entitled the “Madden-Julian Oscillation.” This is a mostly tropical weather system originating in the Indian Ocean and moving around the Earth in from 30 to 90 days (see slide show below in which the slides change every 7 seconds.) The MJO, which can have impressive effects on weather in the USA and the Southwest states, was not even discovered until the early 1970s. It and its effects are an active research activity. Bob also presented a small sidebar on the Maritime Continent and a more extensive sidebar on Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). The latter is what keeps the climate stable.
Our January (1/20/2018) and February (2/17/2018) presentations were on “The Future of Everything,” by Bernie McCune. It includes information on demographics, future growth, population pyramids, and other elements which the alarmists tell us are glimpses of imminent doom and climate catastrophe. The slides used for the two-part presentation are Part 1 and Part 2. Additional slides: Biggest US Industries, Labor Force Participation, and World GDP 2016 – 2030.
Our December meeting (12/16/17) presentation by Bob Endlich was on the California’s Santa Ana winds and associated wild fires. This presentation included weather charts and meteorological analyses showing that the presence of cold air and high pressure over Nevada pushes downslope winds which are the controlling factor in autumn wind-driven fires in California. The intense record- setting rainfall of the January and February 2017 provided ample moisture for grasses and weed growth; the lack of summer rains dominates the Mediterranean Climate of coastal California. While California’s Governor Jerry Brown, places the blame for this fire on climate change and refers to it as the “new normal,” it is the dominance of this ridge of high pressure and the lack of rainfall at the end of summer which set the stage for these wildfires. The shift from El Nino to La Nina Watch conditions occurred this year, and Bob showed the NWS’ pattern shift towards drought from California to South Carolina in La Nina winters. In a review of the October 2017, Wine Country fires, the presentation showed newspaper speculation that Governor Brown might have been partially responsible for the catastrophic October fires starting in the first place when he vetoed a bill that would have paid infrastructure funding to reduce the likelihood of sparking from power lines, poles and similar structures.
For our November meeting (11/18/17) Bob Endlich provided an interesting talk on precipitation, measurements, and measurement problems. His presentation was triggered by an analysis done by Dr. David Legates of U Del, presented at the America First Energy Conference in Houston on 11/9/17. The biggest problem is wind effect. In the early 1990’s National Weather Service began using precipitation gages with wind shields to slow the wind. These improvements resulted in improved catch efficiency and an accompanying upward shift in the measured precipitation amounts. Climate alarmists, unaware of the new instrumentation’s effect on measurements, claim this was strong evidence of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming. Recent Precipitation Measurements and More False Claims of Global Warming Effects.
The weather and circumstances surrounding the recent California forest fires and some climate history were discussed by Bob Endlich at our October meeting (10/21/17).
A Crash Course in Logic and Its Relationship to the Climate Change Debate presented by Dave Toftsted, PhD, at our September 2017 meeting (9/16/17.)
Are We Running Out of Stuff or Energy? presented by Bernie McCune at our August 2017 meeting( 8/19/17.) Supporting information and reference material is also provided.
The Twilight of Abundance was presented by Bernie McCune at our 21 January 2017 meeting.
Bernie McCune provided the February (2/20/16) meeting presentation on Ocean Circulations and their potential effects on climate. This link provides some background information on obtaining ice core proxy data related to ocean cycles and temperature data.
The July Meeting presentation (7/18/15) by Bernie McCune was about heat from the oceans rather than the heat being absorbed by them as we so often hear about and the related ocean circulation patterns.
The presentation for our March 2015 meeting by Bernie McCune consisted of Part 2 on the Argo Ocean Float system.
Bob Endlich provided the February 2015 (2/21/15) presentation titled “Deliberate Deception of Climate Change” in which he provided the history and examples of how the climate change hoax developed over the years.
Bernie McCune provided the presentation for our December 2014 meeting on Part 1 of the Argo Ocean Float system.
Discussions regarding a proposed “global warming” debate (forum) took place in the Fall of 2012 between (and among) Bob Endlich, Connie Falk, and several other alarmists. Of course the debate never happened, because the alarmists backed out of it as they almost always do. This likely happens whenever they come to realize weakness of their arguments for catastrophic human-caused global warming.