[This post by Jennifer Marohasy originally appeared on her blog site on 20 July 2022. It is reproduced here under the fair use doctrine. Ed]
There was a time when it was possible to point out an error by way of a rebuttal published as a note in a scientific journal – even in the journal Nature, even when it went against the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming agenda. The late Patrick Michaels had a note published back in 1996 (vol. 384, pg. 522) explaining that there was a major error in research findings by Ben Santer – findings so significant they underpinned the key claim in the second IPCC report that ‘The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.’
In late June 2021 a well-publicized heat wave occurred in the Pacific Northwest states of the USA. I write this review a year later with a full year having passed for retrospection to examine what happened, in hopes that we might learn some lessons.
One NPR story captured a headline and narrative that puts many elements of Global Warming Alarmism up for critical examination. The headline,
“Climate Change Is Driving Deadly Weather Disasters From Arizona To Mumbai,”
[This post first appeared on Dr. Spencer’s web site (here) on 9 April 2022. We have reproduced it on our web site for the purpose of education and discussion under the fair use doctrine. Ed.]
The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g. between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide “proof” of causation, use of the ‘master equation’ is shown to avoid common pitfalls. Correlation analysis of natural and anthropogenic forcings with year-on-year changes in Mauna Loa CO2 suggest a role for increasing global temperature at least partially explaining observed changes in CO2, but purely statistical analysis cannot tie down the magnitude. One statistically-based model using anthropogenic and natural forcings suggests ~15% of the rise in CO2 being due to natural factors with an excellent match between model and observations for COVID-19 related downturn in global economic activity in 2020.
What determines a nation’s success or failure on the battlefield?
The answer to that question has been debated throughout history and is ongoing as I write this, as Russian troops engage Ukrainian fighters in Ukraine. Many factors are involved in the answer to this question, including quality and quantity of equipment and troops, control of the air, training and discipline of troops, and logistic support of those engaged in combat.
Another factor often determines the outcome: Weather and Weather’s effects on the terrain and the skies above.
A few months ago, I picked up the June 2021 issue of the AARP BULLETIN. What greeted me was inch-high letters blaring the title of their feature article: “CLIMATE CHANGE AND YOU; Extreme Weather Is Affecting Older Americans’ Daily Life…”
On the front cover, four huge images, vivid color photos: white-shirted man on rooftop looking into a wildfire in southern California, flood victims of Hurricane Florence in an overloaded boat in South Carolina, woman in jeans and white shirt in Mississippi assessing damage after Hurricane Katrina, and a view of slushy streets in Texas, February 2021.
The photos are dramatic, of course, classic emotional appeals by the media. But I thought,