Drought, Climate, Elephant Butte Water Storage

and the future of water storage for the lower Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico.
By Robert W. Endlich
Elephant Butte Dam and Landscape in New Mexico. Photo by U.S. Army Corps

Laura Paskus’ 3-part series on the current drought, its effects on farmers and residents, and the coming US Supreme Court decision, starts with a question, ”Elephant Butte is at 3 percent capacity; what happens next?” Let me introduce measurements, missing from Paskus’ series: Elephant Butte Lake levels, temperature, rainfall, and climate patterns. My analysis: nothing in the current meteorological/climatological situation is worse than the past century. History and study show that either water availability must increase, or water costs will increase.

Paskus’ sense of alarm with recent Elephant Butte Reservoir capacity falling to 3% implies impending catastrophe, but historic data show frequent episodes where the reservoir capacity in the 1950s, 60s and Continue reading “Drought, Climate, Elephant Butte Water Storage”

Gregg Garfin’s Use of Color for Alarmism and Propaganda Purposes—the 25 April 2018 Climate Lecture at NMSU

Robert W. Endlich

On 25 April 2015, I attended a Climate Change Lecture at New Mexico State University presented by Dr Gregg Garfin of the University of Arizona, who is Co-Convening Lead Author of the Southwest States Chapter of the National Climate Assessment. The lecture and the graphics for Dr. Garfin’s presentation are available on line.

Designed by Freepic

This post concerns Dr Garfin’s effective use of color to emphasize climate alarm to the extent that it is propagandistic in content. On the other hand,Dr Garfin’s presentation style was decidedly low-key and delivered in a matter-of-fact style, even somewhat understated in delivery. As will be seen in the following paragraphs with graphics taken directly from Dr Garfin’s presentation, this use of color to present the alarm is an Continue reading “Gregg Garfin’s Use of Color for Alarmism and Propaganda Purposes—the 25 April 2018 Climate Lecture at NMSU”

Lead Author SW States Chapter National Climate Assessment Gives Lecture at NMSU

by Bob Endlich

[Meeting the Convening Lead Author, Southwestern States Chapter, National Climate Assessment at NMSU’s Climate Change lecture.]

Gross Exaggeration of Effects of Climate Change

This post is in four sections: before Convening Lead Author Dr Gregg Garfin arrived at NMSU, the lecture itself, the question I asked during the “Q and A” session and concluding thoughts. There is also an addendum.


It started on Friday the 13th.

On Friday the 13th of April 2018, after reading a notice in the Las Cruces Sun- Continue reading “Lead Author SW States Chapter National Climate Assessment Gives Lecture at NMSU”

Q&A Following Dr. David Gutzler’s Water Conservation Workshop

by Bob Endlich

[Dr Gutzler conducted the 1 March 2018 “Lush and Lean” water conservation workshop in Las Cruces in the Roadrunner Room of the Branigan Library from 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM:  About an hour-long lecture of 21 Slides, followed by questions and answers. The nominal topic was, “Learn about projecting future water supplies in a rapidly changing climate.” I prepared this memo the next day, 2 March 2018 and have edited it a bit in the time since.  I provide it in this post as a small part of the overall climate debate.]

C:\Users\Bob\Desktop\Pictures and Graphs 7Apr2016\NNM__3.png
Bob Endlich at News NM Radio Set

Overall Gutzler did only a fair job explaining the development of the present La Nina and the present and impending drought conditions; I rate it as ‘only fair’ because he did not mention either the 2016 El Nino or features of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, he mentioned the Pacific Decadal Oscillation but did not explain it, or it’s 60-year periodicity.

[This is perhaps professional one-upsmanship on my part, because I think and thought at the time that my presentations on the subject are better than his, an example of my most recent on this subject is at the web site, https://casf.me/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/PDF_Climate-History-and-El-Nino_ENSO-_3_Oct_2017.pdf Slides 34 to 122]

Dr. Gutzler devoted perhaps only 5 minutes to the “increasing greenhouse gasses are causing anthropogenic climate change,” but this point was the last one in the three points he emphasized in his concluding slide.

There were a couple of people who approached Gutzler after the talk was over; I was the last and introduced myself; we have Continue reading “Q&A Following Dr. David Gutzler’s Water Conservation Workshop”

The Madden-Julian Oscillation: a weather system Wikipedia lists under Climate Change

by Robert W. Endlich

A significant weather system which affects the globe was not even discovered until the 1970s, perhaps because it is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern. This system, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is an area of enhanced rainfall with these characteristics:

The enhanced precipitation anomaly starts in the Indian Ocean; it always moves eastward, and usually moves from Indian Ocean into mid-Pacific at speeds of 9-19 Miles/Hour. In addition to the enhanced precipitation area itself, there is an associated area of suppressed precipitation, an out-of-phase area ahead of it, usually way out ahead of it. The disturbed weather areas usually last 30 to sometimes 90 days.

The convective precipitation signature of this system is strongest within 15 degrees north and south of the Equator. Continue reading “The Madden-Julian Oscillation: a weather system Wikipedia lists under Climate Change”