[This post first appeared on Dr. Spencer’s web site (here) on 9 April 2022. We have reproduced it on our web site for the purpose of education and discussion under the fair use doctrine. Ed.]
The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g. between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide “proof” of causation, use of the ‘master equation’ is shown to avoid common pitfalls. Correlation analysis of natural and anthropogenic forcings with year-on-year changes in Mauna Loa CO2 suggest a role for increasing global temperature at least partially explaining observed changes in CO2, but purely statistical analysis cannot tie down the magnitude. One statistically-based model using anthropogenic and natural forcings suggests ~15% of the rise in CO2 being due to natural factors with an excellent match between model and observations for COVID-19 related downturn in global economic activity in 2020.
A few months ago, I picked up the June 2021 issue of the AARP BULLETIN. What greeted me was inch-high letters blaring the title of their feature article: “CLIMATE CHANGE AND YOU; Extreme Weather Is Affecting Older Americans’ Daily Life…”
On the front cover, four huge images, vivid color photos: white-shirted man on rooftop looking into a wildfire in southern California, flood victims of Hurricane Florence in an overloaded boat in South Carolina, woman in jeans and white shirt in Mississippi assessing damage after Hurricane Katrina, and a view of slushy streets in Texas, February 2021.
The photos are dramatic, of course, classic emotional appeals by the media. But I thought,
Via executive orders, regulatory edicts and partisan Green New Deal legislation, President Biden intends to slash US carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent below their 2005 peak by 2030, and eliminate them (and fossil fuel use) by 2050. But, as AOC’s former chief of staff noted, the GND is not just about transforming America’s energy
system; it’s about changing the entire economy.
[This article was original posted on Townhall.com on May 02, 2021 12:01 AM. It is reproduced here with the permission of the author. Ed.]
This radical transformation is driven by three fundamental articles of faith, none of them based on reality.
… a patchwork of stories where propaganda and misinformation are presented as fact.
IS EMOTION THE BASIS OF EDUCATION?
For the lead presentation of a series which was purported to bring “Climate Education” to interested members of the Las Cruces, NM and New Mexico State University communities, Dave DuBois starts off with an emotional appeal to the audience, not a fact-based introduction. The link to his presentation is at https://sustainability.nmsu.edu/nmsuccess/ scroll to the bottom.
There’s no imminent climate threat to southern New Mexico’s famous chile-producing region
Robert W. Endlich
A NEWS FEATURE WITH DISTURBING MESSAGES
A recent “news feature” in Las Cruces’ Sun-News was full of gloom, portraying a picture of approaching “climate uncertainty” for New
Mexico’s beloved chile pepper crop, because of purported looming drought and increasing temperatures, with a subtext of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming. The front-page article, by Leah Romero from New Mexico in Depth, was accompanied with a foreboding graph and story, showing seemingly unending upward temperatures, copy below, with an aura of authority. After all, the data came from New Mexico’s Land Grant College, Continue reading “Another False Climate Alarm”