Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum – In science, the debate is never over!
Tag: climate change
[def. dictionary.com] a long-term change in the earth’s climate, especially a change due to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature: Melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected by climate change. … Foremost among them is the role of birth control in dealing with climate change.
[added comments] The above appears to be an overly simple definition of climate change and the last sentence is open to extensive discussion. There is much more to climate change than temperature. There is wind, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and other elements. Also, there is nothing unusual about climate change, because the climate is constantly changing. Climate is simply average weather. What that is depends on the averaging period. Some say that at least 30 years of measurements are required to compute climatic averages, but that is not necessarily correct. There are good reasons to consider 60 years of measurements due to the 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The limiting factor in computing climatological averages is the amount of measurement data available. Generally, there is no more than 100 to 150 years of data unless proxy data are used. Regardless, the climatological average will be different for each different averaging period. Consequently, we must conclude that we really do not have sufficient data to know what the climatological averages are not to mention how they are changing.
[This post first appeared on Dr. Spencer’s web site (here) on 9 April 2022. We have reproduced it on our web site for the purpose of education and discussion under the fair use doctrine. Ed.]
The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g. between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide “proof” of causation, use of the ‘master equation’ is shown to avoid common pitfalls. Correlation analysis of natural and anthropogenic forcings with year-on-year changes in Mauna Loa CO2 suggest a role for increasing global temperature at least partially explaining observed changes in CO2, but purely statistical analysis cannot tie down the magnitude. One statistically-based model using anthropogenic and natural forcings suggests ~15% of the rise in CO2 being due to natural factors with an excellent match between model and observations for COVID-19 related downturn in global economic activity in 2020.
Natural Rainfall, Excessive Runoff, and Lousy Drainage, Not Human-Caused CO2-fueled Global Warming
By Robert W. Endlich
FLOODING IN NEW YORK CITY
As the remnants of what, days before, had been Hurricane Ida passed by the New York City Metro area the evening of 1 Sep 2021, the skies opened up and in spots it poured, as an anticipated heavy rain event crossed the region near sunset. Thunderstorms, fed by water vapor evaporating from
historically the warmest waters of the year offshore, in New York Bay and the nearby Atlantic Ocean, even brought some tornadoes as the unstable air was made even more unstable by convergence of the air at the surface. Overwater winds came onshore to terrain filled with high-rise apartments and skyscrapers built to enable the highest numbers of humans to live and work in the New York City Metropolitan Area, home to over 8 million souls, Continue reading “Post-Hurricane Ida’s deadly rain event in New York City”
“It is not necessary to believe false CO2 theory and stories to understand the wild weather in the wild West . . .”
Have you ever wondered why weather-related news stories from the western USA seem to go from hot, dry weather, droughts, extensive wildfires, and forest fires to the other extreme: heavy rainfall seemingly for days on end, often with cliffside houses washing from their perches into the Pacific Ocean? On-line stories are often accompanied with illustrative video. There is a seemingly never-ending string of weather-related stories carrying western datelines, seemingly varying from dry to drenching, from one extreme to another.
Sometimes climate alarmists claim this is an artifact of our use of fossil fuels, and we are causing these wild excursions because of the increasing amounts of the trace gas CO2 in the atmosphere.
The notion that the USA can cut in half its CO2 emissions from the peak emissions that occurred here in 2005 is fantasy.
President Joe Biden held a virtual climate summit on the fifty-first anniversary of the first Earth Day, originally held 22 April 1970. When confronted with facts, measurements, observations, and data concerning climate history, Biden’s climate plan is based on trying to prevent temperature increases which have occurred naturally many times in the recent past. This post will explore some of the most ill-informed and ignorant statements, plans, and actions, which all together will have no measurable impact on the climate, and will only cause economic harm to us, Earth’s human residents.
Via executive orders, regulatory edicts and partisan Green New Deal legislation, President Biden intends to slash US carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent below their 2005 peak by 2030, and eliminate them (and fossil fuel use) by 2050. But, as AOC’s former chief of staff noted, the GND is not just about transforming America’s energy
system; it’s about changing the entire economy.
[This article was original posted on Townhall.com on May 02, 2021 12:01 AM. It is reproduced here with the permission of the author. Ed.]
This radical transformation is driven by three fundamental articles of faith, none of them based on reality.