Mathematical modeling illusions

The global climate scare – and policies resulting from it – are based on models that do not work

Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris1
Model comparison chart by JR Christy, University of Alabama in Huntsville.

For the past three decades, human-caused global warming alarmists have tried to frighten the public with stories of doom and gloom. They tell us the end of the world as we know it is nigh because of carbon dioxide emitted into the air by burning fossil fuels.

They are exercising precisely what journalist H. L. Mencken described early in the last century: “The whole point of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be lead to Continue reading “Mathematical modeling illusions”

A 1D Model Of Global Temperature Changes, 1880-2017

Dr. Roy Spencer

[Dr. Spencer’s post originally appeared on his blog on February 22nd, 2018.  The link to his 2/23/18 update of the post is here.]

UPDATE(2/23/18): The previous version of this post had improper latitude bounds for the HadCRUT4 Tsfc data. I’ve rerun the results… the conclusions remain the same. I have also added proof that ENSO is accompanied by its own radiative forcing, a controversial claim, which allows it to cause multi-decadal climate change. In simple terms, this is clear evidence the climate system can cause its own, natural, internally-generated climate changes. This is partly what has caused recent warming, and the climate modelling community has assumed it was all human-caused. Continue reading “A 1D Model Of Global Temperature Changes, 1880-2017”

A Brief Look at Climate Models Developed by Skeptics

Skeptical modelers show a more realistic view of past, present, and future climate change that follows mostly natural temperature patterns. These models indicate a more benign climate outcome than do the IPCC models. Since they are able to bound the problem of cause and effect, they dramatically reduce the wide uncertainty range of expected global temperature increase due to atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Bernie McCune

When Alarmists say “climate change is real!” I think yes it is, but “real . . . what?” My perhaps flippant answer to that question is real normal, real natural . . . among a few.  I think human caused climate change is real small.  These are some of the real issues that I want to explore here.

Photo courtesy of

The first point is that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) climate models are actually not real at all.  In fact based on the real data, they are turning out to be fairy tales.  Based on the real data, more realistic models are now being developed by very qualified groups and individuals. The improvement in modeling results over those by the IPCC appear Continue reading “A Brief Look at Climate Models Developed by Skeptics”