Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum – In science, the debate is never over!
Tag: global climate model
(def. Wikipedia) A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources (radiation, latent heat).
Unfortunately, climate models have never produced a correct projection of global temperatures. This is due to a number of problems with the models. Global cloud cover has a big effect on global temperatures, but cloud cover is poorly understood and not modeled correctly. Modelers assume a strong feedback from the presence of carbon dioxide, but many experts say that the feedback is weak or even negative. Without feedback, carbon dioxide has a very small effect on global warming. These climate models use non-linear, partial differential equations which by their very nature cannot be solved.
Climate change policy decisions by our government are based on the output from these models that have always been wrong. These policies have extremely expensive ramifications. Most people would consider basing expensive policy on bad model output to be complete lunacy, if they were aware of it.
Burnett: You coauthored a book titled Lukewarming: The New Climate Science that Changes Everything. What is the thesis of the book?
Michaels: Global warming is often presented as one of two alternative visions: left unattended, it will bring about an unmitigated disaster with tremendous consequences to humanity and the planet; or there is really “no such thing”—meaning little to no warming and little to no influence of human greenhouse-gas emissions on climate.
[This interview was originally published by the Heartland Institute on December 5th, 2019. It is being printed here with the permission of Dr. H. Sterling Burnett from the Heartland Institute.]
A newly published paper, titled “Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections,” mistakenly claims climate models have been remarkably accurate predicting future temperatures. The paper is receiving substantial media attention, but we urge caution before blindly accepting the paper’s assertions.
Suggestions from some CASF members to introduce visitors to the non-problem of catastrophic, human-caused, CO2-fueled “Global Warming” ( since the warming of the 1980s and 1990s stopped about 1998, the name needed to be changed to “Climate Change” ) have led us to a new feature, “New Visitors” short for, “New Visitors Start Here.”
The idea is to provide a short introductory paragraph (or two) and a series of links to take new visitors on a tour of many of the false claims of imminent climate catastrophe through links to short topics which demonstrate this folly. Our use of fossil fuels is causing an increase in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, CO2 for short, but an elementary knowledge of high school chemistry, biology, general science and mathematics shows that the Continue reading “Another Feature for CASF, “New Visitors.””
[Note: This post is based on a presentation by Bernie McCune given at the 16 March 2019 meeting of the Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum in Las Cruces, NM. Ed.]
It has been 40 years this year since the Charney Report was published with a number of proposals for what CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere from human sources would likely do to global surface temperatures or so-called anthropogenic global warming. Similarly, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed about that same time to determine the effects of human activity on global temperature.
Over the next few decades a large number of models (at least 73) were developed to show what these effects might be and terms for the models were devised.
For the past three decades, human-caused global warming alarmists have tried to frighten the public with stories of doom and gloom. They tell us the end of the world as we know it is nigh because of carbon dioxide emitted into the air by burning fossil fuels.
They are exercising precisely what journalist H. L. Mencken described early in the last century: “The whole point of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be lead to Continue reading “Mathematical modeling illusions”