[The Future of Everything presented to CASF: part 1- January 20, 2018 Part 2 – February 17, 2018. Title borrowed from a Wall Street Journal Magazine Nov/Dec 2017]
by Bernie McCune
No one can really predict the future, but I would like to speculate on it a bit and maybe unravel a few promising threads from the tapestry of time and
see what one or two future worlds might look like.
Demographic threads, a discussion of future growth, will Capitalism survive?, Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the future, the future of work, emerging medical processes, the future of poverty and the influence of global trade are a few of the hot spots of future development. And what might the future climate turn out to be?
Demographics and the Future
In the past we have briefly discussed global demographic trends and I will only focus on them as they might influence the future of growth, poverty, work and automation issues. Continue reading “The Future of Everything”
[Dr. Spencer’s post originally appeared on his blog on February 22nd, 2018. The link to his 2/23/18 update of the post is here.]
UPDATE(2/23/18):The previous version of this post had improper latitude bounds for the HadCRUT4 Tsfc data. I’ve rerun the results… the conclusions remain the same. I have also added proof that ENSO is accompanied by its own radiative forcing, a controversial claim, which allows it to cause multi-decadal climate change. In simple terms, this is clear evidence the climate system can cause its own, natural, internally-generated climate changes. This is partly what has caused recent warming, and the climate modelling community has assumed it was all human-caused.Continue reading “A 1D Model Of Global Temperature Changes, 1880-2017”
The year 2017 featured incredibly intense, damaging wildfires in California. First the Wine Country fires of October, and later, in December, the massive Thomas Fire, each destroyed hundreds of homes. The latter, in many of the affluent suburbs and enclaves northwest of Los Angeles and Hollywood. The Thomas Fire is the largest in modern California history with over 1000 structures destroyed.
California’s Governor Jerry Brown blamed human-caused CO2-fueled
global warming for this conflagration during a visit to Ventura County on 9 December, saying the drought conditions were the “new normal.” To quote the governor, “There have (historically) been very long droughts in California and we are getting some of those returning very bad, and we’re going to get them returning more often.”
But, Governor Brown is just wrong about this, as an examination of some meteorological and climate data shows:
[Author Note: This post is an extension of the 18 November 2017 presentation to the Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum, the graphics of which are available at the CASF web site here.]
By Robert W. Endlich
One of the claims of climate alarmists is, “recent downpours (are) increasing,” which is purported evidence of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming. One such reference is from the National Climate Assessment, and is accompanied with figures which show observations in the USA demonstrating this.
the statistics of rare events (like hurricanes) are not very well behaved. Let’s look at this new record, and compared it to the 11+year period of no major hurricane strikes that ended when Harvey struck Texas.
[This is a reprint (21 Sep 2017) from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog (drroyspencer.com) in which he makes the point that two category 4 hurricanes making landfall in the same year is far more likely than the recent eleven year period with no major hurricane landfalls that preceeded the two category 4 hurricanes. Assuming the 177 year return period for no major hurricanes in 9 years estimated by NASA was correct, we agree with Dr. Spencer that the return period for no major hurricanes in 11 years would be 560 years. Ed.]
Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall.