Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum – In science, the debate is never over!
Tag: climate change
[def. dictionary.com] a long-term change in the earth’s climate, especially a change due to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature: Melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected by climate change. … Foremost among them is the role of birth control in dealing with climate change.
[added comments] The above appears to be an overly simple definition of climate change and the last sentence is open to extensive discussion. There is much more to climate change than temperature. There is wind, precipitation, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and other elements. Also, there is nothing unusual about climate change, because the climate is constantly changing. Climate is simply average weather. What that is depends on the averaging period. Some say that at least 30 years of measurements are required to compute climatic averages, but that is not necessarily correct. There are good reasons to consider 60 years of measurements due to the 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The limiting factor in computing climatological averages is the amount of measurement data available. Generally, there is no more than 100 to 150 years of data unless proxy data are used. Regardless, the climatological average will be different for each different averaging period. Consequently, we must conclude that we really do not have sufficient data to know what the climatological averages are not to mention how they are changing.
[Dr. Spencer’s post originally appeared on his blog on February 22nd, 2018. The link to his 2/23/18 update of the post is here.]
UPDATE(2/23/18):The previous version of this post had improper latitude bounds for the HadCRUT4 Tsfc data. I’ve rerun the results… the conclusions remain the same. I have also added proof that ENSO is accompanied by its own radiative forcing, a controversial claim, which allows it to cause multi-decadal climate change. In simple terms, this is clear evidence the climate system can cause its own, natural, internally-generated climate changes. This is partly what has caused recent warming, and the climate modelling community has assumed it was all human-caused.Continue reading “A 1D Model Of Global Temperature Changes, 1880-2017”
Seasonal Radiative Response [This was originally posted in 2013 on Judith Curry’s site and was authored by CASF member, Steve McGee. We have included it here as...
Climate F-Words by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. [Ed. Dr. Roy Spencer wrote a post (22 March 2018) disagreeing with Lord Monckton’s theory that climate scientists have...
The year 2017 featured incredibly intense, damaging wildfires in California. First the Wine Country fires of October, and later, in December, the massive Thomas Fire, each destroyed hundreds of homes. The latter, in many of the affluent suburbs and enclaves northwest of Los Angeles and Hollywood. The Thomas Fire is the largest in modern California history with over 1000 structures destroyed.
California’s Governor Jerry Brown blamed human-caused CO2-fueled
global warming for this conflagration during a visit to Ventura County on 9 December, saying the drought conditions were the “new normal.” To quote the governor, “There have (historically) been very long droughts in California and we are getting some of those returning very bad, and we’re going to get them returning more often.”
But, Governor Brown is just wrong about this, as an examination of some meteorological and climate data shows:
[Note: This post was submitted by Bob Endlich to the Las Cruces Sun-News as an Op Ed column in response to a weekly column by Algernon D’amassa, this one saying that Hurricane Harvey was made worse by human activities. It was declined by the Sun-News editor, because he was afraid that it would generate too many responses from the alarmist camp. We believe that this is nothing more than “soft censorship” another way to describe censorship, accompanied by a nonsensical explanation. Ed.]
Algernon D’Amassa is wrong by saying Hurricane Harvey was made worse by humans, mentioning sea level rise, warmer seas, and stronger storms.
No data show that Hurricane Harvey was made stronger by the use of fossil fuels; in fact, ready availability of, and use of, fossil fuels made a dangerous storm less so, as explained below, comparing Harvey with Galveston’s 1900 Hurricane.
[This post was originally published on cfact.org on 29 July 2017 and authored by Paul Driessen. Previous to this publication, Bob Endlich gave a presentation to the CASF at our 16 August 2014 meeting on a similar subject. Mr. Driessen’s post complements Mr. Endlich’s presentation, which was entitled “21st Century Snake Oil.” ]
It’s time to really cut, cut, cut ethanol and other renewable fuel mandates – maybe to zero.
The closest thing to earthly eternal life, President Ronald Reagan used to say, is a government program.
Those who benefit from a program actively and vocally defend it, often giving millions in campaign cash to politicians who help perpetuate it, while those who oppose the program or are harmed by it are usually disorganized and distracted by daily life. Legislative inertia and Continue reading “Biofuel justifications are illusory”
More rational policies in our future? Trump’s Paris decision challenges bad science, economics and energy politics behind treaty Paul Driessen In the wake of President Trump’s exit from the Paris climate...
Hurricane Harvey: Fossil Fuels No Factor [Note: This post was submitted by Bob Endlich to the Las Cruces Sun-News as an Op Ed column in response to a weekly column by Algernon D’amassa, this one saying that...
[The following is a reprint of a blog on Dr. Roy Spencer’s web site (drroyspencer.com) on July 21, 2017. The study described by Dr. Spencer is unique in that instead of changing the data to better fit the narrative it actually describes a change that makes alarmist-described climate change a little less ominous. It is provided as part of the archive for future reference.]
July 21st, 2017
Dr. Roy Spencer
If I had not looked past the headline of the press report on a new study, I would have just filed it under “It’s worse than we thought”. A new study in Nature reported on July 17 carried the following headlines:
“Satellite snafu masked true sea-level rise for decades” “Revised tallies confirm that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating as the Earth warms and ice sheets thaw.”