In late June 2021 a well-publicized heat wave occurred in the Pacific Northwest states of the USA. I write this review a year later with a full year having passed for retrospection to examine what happened, in hopes that we might learn some lessons.
One NPR story captured a headline and narrative that puts many elements of Global Warming Alarmism up for critical examination. The headline,
“Climate Change Is Driving Deadly Weather Disasters From Arizona To Mumbai,”
[This post first appeared on Dr. Spencer’s web site (here) on 9 April 2022. We have reproduced it on our web site for the purpose of education and discussion under the fair use doctrine. Ed.]
The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g. between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide “proof” of causation, use of the ‘master equation’ is shown to avoid common pitfalls. Correlation analysis of natural and anthropogenic forcings with year-on-year changes in Mauna Loa CO2 suggest a role for increasing global temperature at least partially explaining observed changes in CO2, but purely statistical analysis cannot tie down the magnitude. One statistically-based model using anthropogenic and natural forcings suggests ~15% of the rise in CO2 being due to natural factors with an excellent match between model and observations for COVID-19 related downturn in global economic activity in 2020.
What determines a nation’s success or failure on the battlefield?
The answer to that question has been debated throughout history and is ongoing as I write this, as Russian troops engage Ukrainian fighters in Ukraine. Many factors are involved in the answer to this question, including quality and quantity of equipment and troops, control of the air, training and discipline of troops, and logistic support of those engaged in combat.
Another factor often determines the outcome: Weather and Weather’s effects on the terrain and the skies above.
A few months ago, I picked up the June 2021 issue of the AARP BULLETIN. What greeted me was inch-high letters blaring the title of their feature article: “CLIMATE CHANGE AND YOU; Extreme Weather Is Affecting Older Americans’ Daily Life…”
On the front cover, four huge images, vivid color photos: white-shirted man on rooftop looking into a wildfire in southern California, flood victims of Hurricane Florence in an overloaded boat in South Carolina, woman in jeans and white shirt in Mississippi assessing damage after Hurricane Katrina, and a view of slushy streets in Texas, February 2021.
The photos are dramatic, of course, classic emotional appeals by the media. But I thought,
Natural Rainfall, Excessive Runoff, and Lousy Drainage, Not Human-Caused CO2-fueled Global Warming
By Robert W. Endlich
FLOODING IN NEW YORK CITY
As the remnants of what, days before, had been Hurricane Ida passed by the New York City Metro area the evening of 1 Sep 2021, the skies opened up and in spots it poured, as an anticipated heavy rain event crossed the region near sunset. Thunderstorms, fed by water vapor evaporating from
historically the warmest waters of the year offshore, in New York Bay and the nearby Atlantic Ocean, even brought some tornadoes as the unstable air was made even more unstable by convergence of the air at the surface. Overwater winds came onshore to terrain filled with high-rise apartments and skyscrapers built to enable the highest numbers of humans to live and work in the New York City Metropolitan Area, home to over 8 million souls, Continue reading “Post-Hurricane Ida’s deadly rain event in New York City”