The year 2017 featured incredibly intense, damaging wildfires in California. First the Wine Country fires of October, and later, in December, the massive Thomas Fire, each destroyed hundreds of homes. The latter, in many of the affluent suburbs and enclaves northwest of Los Angeles and Hollywood. The Thomas Fire is the largest in modern California history with over 1000 structures destroyed.
California’s Governor Jerry Brown blamed human-caused CO2-fueled
global warming for this conflagration during a visit to Ventura County on 9 December, saying the drought conditions were the “new normal.” To quote the governor, “There have (historically) been very long droughts in California and we are getting some of those returning very bad, and we’re going to get them returning more often.”
But, Governor Brown is just wrong about this, as an examination of some meteorological and climate data shows:
[Author Note: This post is an extension of the 18 November 2017 presentation to the Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum, the graphics of which are available at the CASF web site here.]
By Robert W. Endlich
One of the claims of climate alarmists is, “recent downpours (are) increasing,” which is purported evidence of human-caused CO2-fueled global warming. One such reference is from the National Climate Assessment, and is accompanied with figures which show observations in the USA demonstrating this.
the statistics of rare events (like hurricanes) are not very well behaved. Let’s look at this new record, and compared it to the 11+year period of no major hurricane strikes that ended when Harvey struck Texas.
[This is a reprint (21 Sep 2017) from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog (drroyspencer.com) in which he makes the point that two category 4 hurricanes making landfall in the same year is far more likely than the recent eleven year period with no major hurricane landfalls that preceeded the two category 4 hurricanes. Assuming the 177 year return period for no major hurricanes in 9 years estimated by NASA was correct, we agree with Dr. Spencer that the return period for no major hurricanes in 11 years would be 560 years. Ed.]
Weather.com published an article noting that the two Cat 4 hurricane strikes this year (Harvey and Irma) is a new record. Here’s a nice graphic they used showing both storms at landfall.
[Note: This post was submitted by Bob Endlich to the Las Cruces Sun-News as an Op Ed column in response to a weekly column by Algernon D’amassa, this one saying that Hurricane Harvey was made worse by human activities. It was declined by the Sun-News editor, because he was afraid that it would generate too many responses from the alarmist camp. We believe that this is nothing more than “soft censorship” another way to describe censorship, accompanied by a nonsensical explanation. Ed.]
Algernon D’Amassa is wrong by saying Hurricane Harvey was made worse by humans, mentioning sea level rise, warmer seas, and stronger storms.
No data show that Hurricane Harvey was made stronger by the use of fossil fuels; in fact, ready availability of, and use of, fossil fuels made a dangerous storm less so, as explained below, comparing Harvey with Galveston’s 1900 Hurricane.
[This post was originally published on cfact.org on 29 July 2017 and authored by Paul Driessen. Previous to this publication, Bob Endlich gave a presentation to the CASF at our 16 August 2014 meeting on a similar subject. Mr. Driessen’s post complements Mr. Endlich’s presentation, which was entitled “21st Century Snake Oil.” ]
It’s time to really cut, cut, cut ethanol and other renewable fuel mandates – maybe to zero.
The closest thing to earthly eternal life, President Ronald Reagan used to say, is a government program.
Those who benefit from a program actively and vocally defend it, often giving millions in campaign cash to politicians who help perpetuate it, while those who oppose the program or are harmed by it are usually disorganized and distracted by daily life. Legislative inertia and Continue reading “Biofuel justifications are illusory”