Tag: global climate model

(def. Wikipedia) A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources (radiation, latent heat).

Unfortunately, climate models have never produced a correct projection of global temperatures. This is due to a number of problems with the models. Global cloud cover has a big effect on global temperatures, but cloud cover is poorly understood and not modeled correctly. Modelers assume a strong feedback from the presence of carbon dioxide, but many experts say that the feedback is weak or even negative. Without feedback, carbon dioxide has a very small effect on global warming. These climate models use non-linear, partial differential equations which by their very nature cannot be solved.

Climate change policy decisions by our government are based on the output from these models that have always been wrong. These policies have extremely expensive ramifications. Most people would consider basing expensive policy on bad model output to be complete lunacy, if they were aware of it.

Another Feature for CASF, “New Visitors.”

Robert W. Endlich

Suggestions from some CASF members to introduce visitors to the non-problem of catastrophic, human-caused, CO2-fueled “Global Warming” ( since the warming of the 1980s and 1990s stopped about 1998, the name needed to be changed to “Climate Change” ) have led us to a new feature, “New Visitors” short for, “New Visitors Start Here.”

Courtesy of Pixabay

The idea is to provide a short introductory paragraph (or two) and a series of links to take new visitors on a tour of many of the false claims of imminent climate catastrophe through links to short topics which demonstrate this folly. Our use of fossil fuels is causing an increase in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, CO2 for short, but an elementary knowledge of high school chemistry, biology, general science and mathematics shows that the Continue reading “Another Feature for CASF, “New Visitors.””

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) with a Doubling of CO2

by Bernie McCune

[Note:  This post is based on a presentation by Bernie McCune given at the 16 March 2019 meeting of the Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum in Las Cruces, NM. Ed.]

It has been 40 years this year since the Charney Report was published with a number of proposals for what CO2 being emitted into the atmosphere from http://blog.friendsofscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/A-willie-soon-tarot-card-part-9-156x300.jpghuman sources would likely do to global surface temperatures or so-called anthropogenic global warming.  Similarly, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed about that same time to determine the effects of human activity on global temperature.

Over the next few decades a large number of models (at least 73) were developed to show what these effects might be and terms for the models were devised.

Two of these terms, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR), were developed.  The ECS was the term that Continue reading “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) with a Doubling of CO2”

Mathematical modeling illusions

The global climate scare – and policies resulting from it – are based on models that do not work

Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris[note]Dr. Jay Lehr is the Science Director of The Heartland Institute which is based in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Tom Harris is Executive Director of the Ottawa, Canada-based International Climate Science Coalition.[/note]
CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means
Tropical Mid-troposphere 20S-20N Models and Observations from drroyspencer.com.

For the past three decades, human-caused global warming alarmists have tried to frighten the public with stories of doom and gloom. They tell us the end of the world as we know it is nigh because of carbon dioxide emitted into the air by burning fossil fuels.

They are exercising precisely what journalist H. L. Mencken described early in the last century: “The whole point of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be lead to Continue reading “Mathematical modeling illusions”

3 Decades of Global Warming Predictions Have Failed

In the 1970s, the left was pushing a climate scare tactic known as Global Cooling. Its purpose was to frighten Americans into voting for unaccountable federal programs that would strangle business and citizens with high taxes and out of control regulations.

by
American Liberty Report

[This amusing piece was borrowed from the American Liberty Report.  You can find the original article on line.  Ed.]

In the 1970s, the left was pushing a climate scare tactic known as Global Cooling. Its purpose was to http://www.americanlibertyreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Capture-a-a-a-alkkjasdas-e1530219270613.jpgfrighten Americans into voting for unaccountable federal programs that would strangle business and citizens with high taxes and out of control regulations.

There was even a popular Iron Maiden song about it called Total Eclipse with overtly anti-human Continue reading “3 Decades of Global Warming Predictions Have Failed”

Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

James Hansen issued dire warnings in the summer of 1988. Today earth is only modestly warmer

By
Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue

[This article[note]Appeared in the June 22, 2018, print edition as ‘A Hot Summer on Capitol Hill.'[/note] originally appeared with the same title in the Wall Street Journal on 21 June 2018.  Ed]

James Hansen testifies before a Senate Transportation subcommittee in Washington, D.C., May 8, 1989. PHOTO: DENNIS COOK/ASSOCIATED PRESS

James E. Hansen wiped sweat from his brow. Outside it was a record-high 98 degrees on June 23, 1988, as the NASA scientist testified beforethe Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources during a prolonged heat wave, which he decided to cast as a climate event of cosmic significance. He expressed to the senators his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

With that testimony and an accompanying paper in the Journal of Continue reading “Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?”