Cruces Atmospheric Sciences Forum – In science, the debate is never over!
Tag: forest fire
A large, destructive fire that spreads over a forest or area of woodland.
Forest fires occur and spread most readily during a period of drought enhanced by high winds. Climate change or global warming is frequently blamed for any increase in the number of forest fires, an increase in the number of acres forest burned, or the cost of the destruction caused by forest fires. If global warming is controlled by the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which has been increasing monotonically, that the statistics of the numbers of fires, numbers of acres burned, and cost of destruction should all be on the rise. These statistics, however, are not rising and in some cases have gone down. So claims of human-induced climate change causing the forest fire statistics to become more dire are simply not accurate.
In describing the errors in the Fourth National Climate Assessment, ‘NCA4’, I’ll use the words from the Executive Summary which purport to link climate changes in the USA to global climate change.
The first claim, “The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes,“ is shown to be false, simply by examining climate records, some from the National Climate Data Center.
[Meeting the Convening Lead Author, Southwestern States Chapter, National Climate Assessment at NMSU’s Climate Change lecture.]
This post is in four sections: before Convening Lead Author Dr Gregg Garfin arrived at NMSU, the lecture itself, the question I asked during the “Q and A” session and concluding thoughts. There is also an addendum.
The year 2017 featured incredibly intense, damaging wildfires in California. First the Wine Country fires of October, and later, in December, the massive Thomas Fire, each destroyed hundreds of homes. The latter, in many of the affluent suburbs and enclaves northwest of Los Angeles and Hollywood. The Thomas Fire is the largest in modern California history with over 1000 structures destroyed.
California’s Governor Jerry Brown blamed human-caused CO2-fueled
global warming for this conflagration during a visit to Ventura County on 9 December, saying the drought conditions were the “new normal.” To quote the governor, “There have (historically) been very long droughts in California and we are getting some of those returning very bad, and we’re going to get them returning more often.”
But, Governor Brown is just wrong about this, as an examination of some meteorological and climate data shows:
The data I show here demonstrates the claims by CLIMATE ONE and their parent organization, the Commonwealth Club, are refuted by data and publications in the public domain. Claims of the “Settled Science” of catastrophic warming are without foundation, if you look at the data. In science, the debate is never over and the science is never settled.